USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Rose Despite Robust Canadian Employment

The dollar continued to rise in an uptrend against the Loonie following a more robust than ISM Services report. The Canadian jobs data was much better than expected as the end of the income programs fueled job gains. In the US, yields fell as the payroll headline number missed expectations while the household survey showed the unemployment rate was falling.

Technical analysis

The dollar broke out and trended above resistance which is now support at 1.28. Target resistance is seen near the September highs at 1.29.  The 10-day moving average cross above the 50-day moving average, which means that a short-term uptrend is almost in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The exchange rate is overbought with the fast stochastic printing a reading of 96, above the overbought trigger level of 80. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is generated a crossover buy signal. This scenario occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Canada’s Jobs Report Was Robust

Canada’s labor market surged in November, rising more than expected as the end of income support programs helped fuel new hiring. Employment rose 153,700 last month, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. That’s more than quadruple the 37,500 expected.