USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Pulls Back Against the Yen

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 03.11.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar fell during the trading session on Thursday, as we are reaching the ¥150 level. ¥150 level is an area that has attracted a lot of attention in the past, and is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure. There’s a lot of wishful thinking out there that the Federal Reserve is about to change its overall trajectory, but quite frankly I think this is going to end up being a buying opportunity.

Friday is the jobs number, that of course will throw a lot of volatility into this situation. After all, there will be a lot of expectations as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten, or if the employment situation finally slows down enough to give them the cover that’s necessary to start to step back from quantitative tightening. Ultimately, I think we are light years away from the Federal Reserve changing its tune, and I think that the market probably read far too much into the statements coming out of Jerome Powell yesterday.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA which is near the ¥148 level, and then of course we have the ¥147.80 level, an area that has been an important couple of times in the past as well. Because of this, I’ll be looking for buying opportunities, but quite frankly it should not be a huge surprise we pulled back just a bit, because the market had shot straight up in the air a couple of days ago after the Bank of Japan blinked during its announcement.

When looking at a market like this, you need to be very patient, and recognize that we are still very much in a massive uptrend. Because of this, if you are patient enough, you should have the opportunity to pick up “cheap US dollars. I have no interest in shorting this market, at least not until we break down below the ¥147.80 level, and even then I think you would probably have to be somewhat cautious. In fact, if we do break down below there, I will probably start looking at the overall economic picture and reassess the entire trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.