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USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – March 29, 2019 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Mar 29, 2019, 06:24 UTC

Based on the early price action and the current price at 110.763, the direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 110.825.

USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen is trading higher on Friday. The Forex pair is being underpinned by a combination of rising U.S. Treasury yields and increasing demand for higher risk assets. The price action this week suggests investors are downplaying the prediction of a future recession that is being signaled by an inverted Treasury yield.

At 05:46 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 110.763, up 0.107 or +0.10%.

Daily USDJPY
Daily USD/JPY

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 109.710 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 111.940.

The minor trend is up. This move shifted momentum to the upside on Thursday. A trade through 110.015 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum back to the downside.

Long-term retracement zones helped form a support base throughout the week. The major retracement zone is 110.452 to 109.445. Inside this zone is another retracement zone at 110.316 to 109.887. Most of the supportive price action this week took place inside this retracement zone.

The short-term range is 111.940 to 109.710. Its retracement zone at 110.825 to 111.088 is the primary upside target. This zone was tested earlier today. Since the main trend is down, sellers came in as expected earlier in the session. Trader reaction to this zone will set the near-term tone of the Dollar/Yen. Buyers are going to try to take out this retracement zone, while sellers are going to try to produce a secondary lower top.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 110.763, the direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 110.825.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 110.825 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into the short-term Fibonacci level at 111.088. We could see sellers on the first test of this zone. However, it is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 110.825 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the USD/JPY into 110.452 then 110.316. This would also signal the formation of a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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