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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, August 08, 2019

The US dollar fell during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking down towards the ¥105.50 level again. This is a market that had previously broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and has gone lower. It makes quite a bit of sense considering that we often see that level giving way and opening up the door to the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. This means that we will probably drop another 50 pips, and with all of the fear that we have out there it makes quite a bit of sense that the Japanese yen continues to get a lot of attention.

USD/JPY Video 08.08.19

Beyond that, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates going forward, so it’s possible that we drop. Rallies at this point are to be sold unless of course we get some type of really good news out there, but I don’t see that happening. With all of that being said it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of fear out there and that almost always picks up the Japanese yen. Overall though, there is one scenario that could help this market, and that’s if the Americans and the Chinese come together with some type of agreement. It seems very unlikely to happen anytime soon though, so I think that as we approach the fall season, more money will flow out of risk and into safety. That means that we are very likely to see the ¥105 level broken given enough time.

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