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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, October 31, 2019

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, dancing around the 200 day EMA which of course is a longer-term trend determining indicator for several traders out there. Beyond that, there is a lot of resistance that extends to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the ¥109.50 level. If the market can break above that level, then we can start to see the uptrend continue and reach towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. That is closer to the ¥112.40 level, allowing for a larger move overall, and it looks as if the market is trying to build up the necessary momentum to make that move possible.

USD/JPY Video 31.10.19

The alternate scenario would be that the market breaks below the lows of last week, reaching down towards the ¥108 level, it did possible even the ¥107 level. However, it seems as of the uptrend is the most likely of scenarios as we are forming a bit of an ascending triangle and it looks like we are ready to try to take off to the upside. If that’s going to be the case, then the move could be rather explosive, and the Federal Reserve may be the catalyst to send this market higher based upon an injection of liquidity and of course the expected 25 basis point cut. It will come down to the statement following that move, and if the stock market likes it, that should send this market much higher and reaching towards that 100% Fibonacci retracement level.

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