USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar rolls over to kick off weekThe US dollar rolled over a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we rolled over towards the 50 EMA on the daily chart. It looks as if we have conflicting pressure in this market, sending it in both directions.
The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday, but then rolled over to reach towards the 50 day EMA. The market is currently in consolidation, as the symmetric triangle continues to be the main feature of this market. I think at this point, we will need to see some type of conclusion to this tension, but I think between now and the end of the year we may struggle to make a serious move. Ultimately, this is a market that is winding down for the end of the year, as we await to see what the Federal Reserve is going to do on Wednesday and of course the liquidity will drop off of a cliff.
USD/JPY Video 18.12.18
I think at this point, it’s very difficult to imagine putting a lot of money to work, but the ¥114.50 level above has been massive resistance, so I think it’s good to be difficult to break above there. I do think that if we can break down below the uptrend line, we will probably unwind towards the ¥111 level, perhaps the ¥110 level. Overall though, I think that as long as we are in this triangle, if we can sit at our computers and trade 50 minute chart, we may be able to go back and forth in a scalping type of environment. Beyond that, I would not expect too much unless of course the Federal Reserve surprises everyone on Wednesday with its tone. For what it’s worth, most of my Wall Street contacts suggest that the Japanese yen should strengthened into next year.