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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY weekly chart, January 07, 2019

The US dollar broke down significantly against the Japanese yen during the week, especially during the flash crash that sliced all the way down to the ¥105 level. This would have been algorithmic trading during a very thin time of day, as Tim Cook suggested that Apple was struggling with the Chinese economy slowing down. This happened after 5 PM EST, which is one of the thinnest times of day. However, this would have created a lot of destruction from a technical standpoint, so I do think that we may get a little bit of a bounce here, but quite frankly I would be very interested near the ¥110 level in shorting this market at the first signs of weakness.

USD/JPY Video 07.01.19

Ultimately, this is a market that has made a significant break down as of late, and I think we will revisit the ¥105 level underneath as it is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation. I don’t know at this point this is going to be easy to deal with, because there are a lot of mixed signals when it comes from the Federal Reserve. Because of this, I think that this pair will continue to be extraordinarily volatile, and although the US dollar has been strengthening against the European currencies, I don’t expect it to do so against the Japanese yen in the uncertain economic environment that we find ourselves in globally, not only due to trade wars, but simple slowdowns.

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