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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis January 17, 2014 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is flat ahead of the North American open trading at 1.0933 as the US dollar continues to gather momentum on
The USD/CAD is flat ahead of the North American open trading at 1.0933 as the US dollar continues to gather momentum on positive data and strong economic growth. The CAD remains weak with oil and gold prices trading at the bottom of their ranges. Today Canadian traders will see Foreign Security Purchases and across the border the markets will see inflation and unemployment numbers. Strong U.S. regional manufacturing and price data lifted the dollar on Wednesday, boosting it against most major currencies, while the Canadian dollar weakened to a fresh four-year low. The Canadian dollar continued to plumb new depths today in what has been a free fall so far this year, though it perked up slightly this afternoon. The currency hit a low of 90.98 cents U.S. in the early hours, its lowest since 90.06 cents in September, 2009, before regaining ground and retaking the 91-cent mark. It stood at about 91.5 cents by midday.
The Loonie, as Canada’s dollar coin is known, has been losing ground for a year. That picked up speed as the New Year dawned, driven lower by weak economic numbers and the dovish nature of the Bank of Canada under its new governor, Stephen Poloz. The Canadian dollar has lost some 3 per cent so far in January to become the weakest currency among the world’s majors – next to the Loonie is the Swiss franc, down 1.6 per cent – and the fifth-weakest in the world.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data January 16, 2014 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Jan. 16 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
0.8% |
|
-0.9% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
RICS House Price Balance |
56% |
|
60% |
|
58% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Employment Change |
-22.6K |
|
7.5K |
|
15.4K |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
5.8% |
|
5.8% |
|
5.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Full Employment Change |
-31.6K |
|
|
|
10.5K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
0.8% |
|
0.8% |
|
0.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
0.7% |
|
0.9% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
|
|
0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
|
|
0.3% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Foreign Securities Purchases |
|
|
7.21B |
|
4.41B |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
|
328K |
|
330K |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
|
|
8.6 |
|
6.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP, CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jan. 17 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.6% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
3.2% |
2.3% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.007M |
1.017M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.992M |
1.091M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-2.1% |
||
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
22.7% |
||
|
|
14:15 |
USD |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
84.0 |
82.5 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Jan 20 10:00 Slovakia
Jan 20 11:00 Belgium
Jan 21 01:30 Japan
Jan 21 09:30 Spain
Jan 22 10:30 Germany
Jan 23 01:30 Japan
Jan 23 10:03 Sweden
Jan 23 10:30 UK
Jan 23 11:00 France
Jan 23 16:00 US
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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