Weekly Waves 14 Mar: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and Gold

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD, the Bitcoin crypto currency, and this time around, we add Gold (XAU/USD) instead of the US30 chart.

The stock markets have been moving slowly whereas the Gold chart seems to be making an interesting retracement within a strong uptrend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis:

The EUR/USD is in a downtrend but price action is showing serious bullish signals:

1. The EUR/USD made 5 waves up (gray), which indicates a wave 1 or A of a larger ABC zigzag pattern (pink).
2. A bearish ABC retracement (gray) seems to be taking place within wave 2 or B (pink).
3. A break (green arrows) above the bearish channel could indicate the start of a wave 3 or C (pink) towards Fibonacci targets.
4. A break below the bottom, however, invalidates the expected bullish price swing and indicates a continuation of the downtrend towards 1.0750.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) seems to be building a triangle chart pattern:

1. BTC/USD remains in the triangle pattern as long as price action respects the top and bottom.
2. The triangle looks more bullish due to the strong push up in wave A (pink).
3. Price action could be completing an ABCDE (gray) within wave B (pink) now.
4. A break above the resistance (orange) lines could confirm the start of the wave C (pink).
5. The main targets are the Fibonacci levels at 48k and 52k.
6. A break below the support (green) line could indicate a larger retracement. A wave C (C2 gray) could finish at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
7. A break below the bottom, however, would invalidate the ABC (pink) pattern.

Gold (XAU/USD)

XAU/USD has been in a strong rally ever since the retracement found support around $1750:

1. The strong bullish impulse seems to be a wave 3 (gray).
2. The bearish retracement is probably a wave 4 (gray).
3. The wave 4 remains likely as long as price respects the shallow 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.
4. A deeper retracement places the bullish analysis on hold.
5. The wave 4 usually is lengthy and choppy. A triangle pattern could emerge here.
6. The main bullish targets are $2150 and $2250.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter