Weekly Waves 26 September: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 1 hour chart, the GBP/USD 1 hour chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart.

EUR/USD Bearish Impulse Takes a Small Break

The EUR/USD almost reached 0.95 in early trading this morning:

1. The EUR/USD could have completed wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (orange).
2. The strong bullish bounce once price action reached the strong support at the 0.95 round level probably is a wave A (green) retracement.
3. Price action could face difficulties to move much higher. The Fibonacci retracement levels should act as a strong resistance.
4. A bearish reaction at the Fibonacci levels could confirm the end of wave A and the start of wave B (green).
5. A larger ABC (green) pattern would fit within an expected wave 4 (orange).
6. A downtrend is expected to resume and take price action at 0.94 and 0.9250 within wave 5 (orange) of waves 3.

GBP/USD Crashes 550 Pips in Early Trading

The GBP/USD made a huge drop from 1.0850 down to 1.03 earlier this morning:

1. The GBP/USD 550 pip decline this morning seems to be part of an impulsive wave 3 (yellow).
2. The strong bullish push upwards after the decline is expected to be a wave A (orange) of a larger ABC (orange) within a wave 4 (yellow).
3. The Fibonacci levels are expected to be a resistance zone.
4. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level makes it less likely that the current Elliott Wave analysis – indicating a wave 3 and 4 (yellow) – is correct.
5. A bullish ABC (orange) is expected within the wave 4 (yellow).
6. A downtrend continuation should aim at parity (1.00).

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is unable to break through the previous bottom (green lines):

1. The BTC/USD is at an important decision zone: a bearish breakout confirms the downtrend (red arrows).
2. A bullish bounce (blue arrows) could indicate a larger wave C (orange C’) towards the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci resistance zone.
3. A break above the 38.2-50% Fibonacci levels could indicate that the wave 5 (yellow) of wave C (pink) has been completed.
4. A bearish bounce at the Fibonacci resistance levels should signal the end of the wave 4 (yellow).
5. A downtrend continuation aims at $15k and $12.5k within wave C (pink).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter