Weekly Waves 7 November: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and Gold

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the XAU/USD 4 hour chart, and the Bitcoin 4 hour chart.

EUR/USD Bullish Bounce at 61.8% Fibonacci

The EUR/USD made a strong bullish bounce at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level:

1. The EUR/USD bullish bounce at the golden ratio (61.8% Fib) increases the odds of a larger bullish retracement.
2. The bullish correction could take place via a WXY (pink) correction.
3. There was an ABC zigzag (green) within the wave W and X (pink) waves.
4. There could be another ABC (green) within wave Y (pink) of wave 4 (gray).
5. After the wave A (green) is finished, we expect a bearish ABC (red arrows) back to the support trend line (green) within the wave B (green).
6. A bullish bounce (blue arrow) could take price up to the -27.2% target near 1.025.

Bitcoin Uptrend after Bullish Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is in a short-term bullish uptrend after breaking above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange):

1. BTC/USD is in an uptrend channel with higher highs and higher lows.
2. Bitcoin seems to have completed a wave 4 (green) recently.
3. A move up within wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (yellow) is now expected.
4. This remains valid as long as price action does not break below the support line (green) of the uptrend channel.
5. There seems to be a 5 wave (orange) pattern within wave 3 (yellow) that could take price action up to the -27.2% and -61.8% Fibonacci targets.
6. A retracement is then expected, followed by another push up.
7. Ultimately price action should complete a wave C (pink) within wave 4 (gray).

Gold Creates Double Bottom Pattern

Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced at the previous bottom without breaking it:

1. The bullish bounce indicates a double bottom reversal chart pattern.
2. The bounce however did not break below the previous bottom, which means that the wave 1-2 (pink) pattern is not invalid.
3. A break below the bottom would invalid it.
4. The breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange) indicates a bullish swing.
5. This bullish swing could either be part of 1) a wave 3 (pink) or 2) a larger WXY (yellow) within an extended wave 2’ (pink).
6. The wave pattern will depend on the price reaction at the previous top.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter