Why Did Bitcoin Fall Below $100K, And What to Expect Next?

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain its upside momentum above $100,000, falling alongside global stocks amid fears that the Federal Reserve won’t cut the benchmark interest rates in December.

Declines Deepen Below $100,000 BTC Support

Bitcoin declined by nearly 3% on Friday, reaching a low of $96,712 on Binance. That prompted the altcoin market to follow suit, which plunged by up to 2.89% in the same period.

The massive plunge in the cryptocurrency market followed declines in global stocks. Major US stock benchmarks tumbled across the board, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the decline, pulling back 2%, while the S&P 500 slid 1.7%.

Traders largely blamed the shift on fading expectations for a December Fed rate cut.

The odds of another reduction have dropped to roughly 50%, down from 72% just a week earlier, as recent Fed commentary offered little confidence that policymakers are ready to ease again.

“The anecdotal evidence and the data we got just implied to me underlying resilience in economic activity, more than I had expected,” said Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, adding:

“I can make a case depending on how the data goes to cut, I can make a case to hold, and we’ll have to see.”

Bitcoin Eyes Further Drop Toward $94,000, CryptoQuant Data Shows

As Bitcoin’s plunge below $100,000 continues, some analysts have started sharing what their believe could be potential local bottoms, of course, accompanied by leading BTC metrics.

For instance, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, in a Friday post, shared Bitcoin’s odds of hitting $94,000 next, a level aligning with the cost basis of 6-12 month BTC holders.

“Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions,” Ju said.

A popular trader enforces a counterargument.

Known by the pseudonym ‘Heisenberg,’ the trader highlights an impending death cross on the Bitcoin daily chart, wherein its 50-period moving average (MA) is nearing a close below the 200-period one.

The previous three death crosses—normally viewed as bearish—actually coincided with major local bottoms, each followed by strong rallies, prompting Heisenberg to see a similar reaction in the coming days.

The trader also pointed to a fresh bullish RSI divergence forming alongside another imminent death cross, as well as BTC now retesting a long-term ascending trendline that has supported the uptrend since early 2024.

BTC Wedge Raises Selloff Risks Toward $85,000-88,000 Area

Bitcoin’s slide is also testing the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern, raising the risk of a deeper correction.

Consolidating inside the wedge structure could accelerate downside momentum toward the $85,000–$88,000 zone, an area that aligns with the wedge’s technical target and a key cluster of historical support.

If Bitcoin breaks upward before reaching the wedge apex, the first meaningful breakout zone aligns with the 0.5 Fib level at $100,618, which would act as the initial confirmation of bullish momentum leaving the pattern early.

However, if BTC sinks deeper into the structure and only rebounds near the wedge apex around $87,784, the breakout range becomes wider and more explosive.

The upside target, depending on the breakout point, falls within the $108,000-$ 120,775 range.