Shutdown Ends, but Missing Data Clouds Fed Outlook as Cisco Surges on AI Earnings Beat

U.S. Stock Futures Slip as Shutdown Ends Without Key Economic Data

U.S. equity futures are trading slightly lower ahead of Thursday’s opening bell, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, Dow futures off 26 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures weaker by 0.3%.

The subdued tone follows the formal end of the 43-day government shutdown—the longest in U.S. history—signed into law late Wednesday by President Trump. The deal funds the government through January 30 but offers no resolution on Affordable Care Act subsidies.

Traders appear more focused on the lingering fallout than the resolution itself. Markets face a critical information gap after the White House confirmed that October’s jobs and inflation data “will likely never” be released. This data blackout complicates the Federal Reserve’s path forward and injects new uncertainty ahead of the December policy meeting.

Cisco Surges After AI-Driven Earnings Beat

Cisco Systems jumped 7.5% in after-hours trading after reporting fiscal Q1 revenue of $14.9 billion, beating estimates, with adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share. AI infrastructure demand fueled a $1.3 billion order surge from hyperscaler clients, while networking product orders rose for a fifth straight quarter.

CEO Chuck Robbins pointed to a major multi-year networking refresh cycle as an additional growth engine. Forward guidance also beat expectations, with Q2 revenue seen between $15.0–$15.2 billion. Shares are trading near 74 premarket, up from Wednesday’s 69 close, as traders position around the open.

Banking Stocks Extend Gains as Capital Strength Holds

Banking names continue to outperform with strong institutional support. Goldman Sachs broke out above $825.25, while JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon, and Bank of America remain in their respective buy zones. The sector is up nearly 39% year-to-date, far outpacing regional peers.

Recent commentary from the Fed’s Financial Stability Report highlighted stable credit quality, resilient capital ratios, and a reduced policy risk outlook. However, concerns remain around commercial real estate exposure and cautious loan issuance.

Fed Policy Uncertainty Deepens With Data Loss

Markets will closely monitor remarks today from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, especially after the White House confirmed the permanent loss of key October data. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks tomorrow, and his prior dissent on rate cuts adds weight to his commentary.

The lack of forward guidance from economic data creates a vacuum that could delay or freeze further policy moves, especially if inflation expectations are unclear.

Stocks on the Move Ahead of the Bell

Cisco (CSCO) is leading premarket gainers, up over 7% after a strong earnings beat and bullish guidance driven by AI infrastructure demand. Newmont (NEM) is also trading higher, extending Wednesday’s 3.5% rally as gold prices firm on safe-haven interest.

Walt Disney (DIS) is flat ahead of its earnings release this morning, with investors focused on streaming subscriber trends and content performance. Applied Materials (AMAT) is trading with a slight positive bias ahead of this afternoon’s report, which will be a key sentiment driver for the semiconductor space.

Airline stocks, including Delta (DAL) and United (UAL), are under watch as the Transportation Department maintains flight restrictions due to staffing shortages. Meanwhile, major banks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are holding recent gains in premarket trading after breakout moves earlier this week.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously Bearish

Traders are heading into the session focused on a few key catalysts: Disney’s earnings report this morning, Applied Materials later today, and any new clarity from Fed speakers. While the government shutdown has officially ended, the market’s hesitation reflects the deeper issue—diminished visibility into the economy just as the Fed nears a pivotal rate decision. Until traders get better clarity from earnings or central bank officials, sentiment is likely to remain cautious.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.