XRP Bulls Target $0.40 on SEC v Ripple and Fed Policy Sentiment

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, XRP rose for the third time in eleven sessions, ending the day at $0.38848.
• Contagion fear eased further on the launch of the Binance recovery fund, leaving XRP in the hands of sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case.
• However, the technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.35.

On Tuesday, XRP rose by 3.07%. Following a 10.76% rally from Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.38848. Notably, XRP ended the day at sub-$0.40 for the seventh consecutive session while avoiding the red for the third time in eleven sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.36658. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3389, XRP rallied to a late afternoon high of $0.39747. XRP briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3969 before ending the day at sub-$0.39 levels.

Going into the Tuesday session, market jitters over the collapse of FTX and contagion eased. Monday’s news of Binance launching a recovery fund provided price support. Materially, the shift in sentiment allowed investors to refocus on US economic indicators and the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

Amicus Brief Filings and US Economic Indicators Deliver XRP Support

Amicus Brief filings drew interest following the Court ruling to extend the deadline for several counterparties until November 18.

The Crypto Council for Innovation, Reaper Financial, Veri DAO, six XRP holders, Paradigm Operations, the Blockchain Association, and Coinbase filed Amicus Briefs.

For XRP holders, the Court’s decision to allow the filings after the previous November 11 deadline was XRP positive. The move suggested that the Amicus Brief filings could have more weight in the Court, which tipped the scales further in favor of the defendants.

On Tuesday, US economic indicators also provided XRP price support. Softer wholesale inflation fueled the bets of a December Fed pivot, delivering NASDAQ Composite Index and crypto support.

However, risk aversion hit the global financial markets this morning. News of a Russian missile attack on Poland and an emergency roundtable at the G20 Summit tested buyer appetite.

News updates from the G20, US economic indicators, and SEC v Ripple news need consideration today. Investors will also have to monitor the reports of other crypto exchanges announcing withdrawal freezes. While the Binance recovery fund is a cushion, details about the fund remain limited until now.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 2.31% to $0.37952. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.38910 before falling to a low of $0.37926.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.3842 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4018. A return to $0.39 would signal a bullish session. Geopolitics, contagion, the SEC v Ripple case, and US stats are in focus.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4151. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4460.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3709 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3650 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3533. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3224.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.38478. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were mixed.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.38478) would bring R1 ($0.4018) into play. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.38478) would leave S1 ($0.3709) in view.