XRP Coughs Up $0.40 Despite Optimism Toward the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, XRP rose by 0.15%. Marking the sixth gain from seven sessions, XRP ended the day at $0.39656.
• XRP bucked the broader market trend, with investor hopes of a favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple case providing support.
• However, the technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a possible return to sub-$0.35.

On Sunday, XRP rose by 0.13%. Partially reversing a 2.93% loss from Saturday, XRP ended the week up by 9.91% to $0.39676. Notably, XRP revisited $0.42 for the first time since November 8.

After a bullish morning, XRP surged to a high of $0.42300. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4089 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4217. However, a late crypto market reversal led to an XRP fall to a low of $0.39468. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3880, XRP wrapped up the day at $0.39656.

China Protests Over COVID-19 Lockdown Measures Leave XRP at Sub-$0.40

News reports of protests across China over the latest COVID-19 lockdown measures weighed on XRP and the broader crypto market.

XRP and the broader market hit reverse in the final hour of the Sunday session. The protests raise concerns over how the government will respond and what implications the lockdown measures will have on the economy and global supply chains.

The Hang Seng and the CSI 300 were down 1.73% and 1.47% in early trading, with the NASDAQ mini down 89.75 points in response.

XRP has shown increased volatility to bearish events as investors hold out for the November 30 Court filings. Investor sentiment toward the outcome of the ongoing SEC v Ripple case has turned positive, supporting an XRP return to $0.42.

On Wednesday, the SEC and defendants must file summary judgment reply briefs. The public can access redacted versions on December 5. The reply briefs are significant as Ripple could use the filing to corner the SEC into a settlement.

William Hinman’s speech-related documents and the Amicus Briefs will likely be areas of interest. While the defendants have the documents in their possession, the SEC will want to prevent the public from accessing the Hinman documents.

In a famous 2018 speech, Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

By way of history, the SEC failed to shield the Hinman speech-related documents on more than six occasions.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 4.61% to $0.37826. A bearish start to the day saw XRP slide from an early high of $0.39853 to a low of $0.37312.

XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3865 and briefly through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3764.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through S1 ($0.3865) and the $0.4047 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4148 and the Sunday high of $0.42300. A return to $0.40 would signal another breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4331 and $0.4350. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4614.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3764 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3700 and the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.3481.

Price movement today will likely hinge on updates from China and the global indices, FTX news, and any unexpected filings or rulings from the Court on the SEC v Ripple case.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.38999. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through S1 ($0.3865) and the 50-day ($0.38999) and 100-day ($0.39179) EMAs would bring the 200-day EMA ($0.40625) and R1 ($0.4148) into view. However, failure to move through S1 and the 50-day EMA would leave S2 ($0.3764) in play.