XRP Eyes $0.50 on Increased Volatility Despite SEC v Ripple Silence

Key Insights:

• On Monday, XRP fell by 0.93% to end the day at $0.46046.
• US economic indicators and Fed Fear weighed as investors await rulings from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to sub-$0.42.

On Monday, XRP fell by 0.96%. Following a 1.60% decline on Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.46046. Despite the bearish session, XRP revisited the $0.49 handle for the first time in four sessions.

Tracking the broader market, XRP rallied to an early high of $0.48499 before hitting reverse. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4734 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4819. However, the reversal saw XRP fall to a late afternoon low of $0.44725. XRP briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4548 before ending the day at $0.46046.

US Economic Indicators and Fed Fear Send XRP into the Red

It was a quiet start to the week. There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to draw interest. The lack of court rulings left XRP in the hands of the US economic calendar and the broader crypto market.

Despite disappointing manufacturing sector numbers from Chicago and Dallas, the market bets of Fed rate hikes in May and June turned more hawkish.

According to the CME FedWatchTool, the probability of a 25-basis point May interest rate hike rose from 89.1% to 98.9% on Monday. Significantly, the chances of a June hike climbed from 23.4% to 24.7%.

With US economic indicators revealing cracks in the US economy, the threat of a more aggressive interest rate trajectory raised the fear of a hard landing, weighing on riskier assets.

An SEC victory in the SEC v Hydrogen Technology Corp. case added to the bearish mood.

The Day Ahead

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will remain the focal point, with investors hoping for a Court ruling before the weekend. However, US regulatory activity and lawmaker chatter will also draw interest, with Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news needing consideration.

Another day of silence from the Courts would give the US economic and earnings calendars more influence.

On the economic calendar, US consumer confidence figures for April will influence. A CB Consumer Confidence fall from 104.2 to sub-100 would weigh on riskier assets.

However, the US earnings calendar will also draw interest. Big names on the US earnings calendar include Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Visa Inc. (V), McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), General Motors Co. (GM), and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP).

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.25% to $0.45933. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.46250 before falling to a low of $0.45816.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.4642 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4812 and the Monday high of $0.48499. A return to $0.4750 would signal a bullish session. However, US economic indicators, earnings, and SEC v Ripple chatter must support a breakout.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0. 5020. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5397.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4435 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.44 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4265. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3888.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.47887. After the Monday bearish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day ($0.47887) and 200-day ($0.48033) EMAs and R1 ($0.4812) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.48814) and R2 ($0.5020). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.47887) would leave S1 ($0.4435) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.