XRP News Today: Bullish ETF Flows Offset Fed Volatility Risks

The XRP-spot ETF market extends its inflow streak to 16 consecutive sessions, tilting the supply-demand balance firmly in XRP’s favor. Hopes for crypto-friendly legislation added to the positive sentiment as reports broke of bipartisan meetings between Senators discussing the Market Structure Bill.

Positive developments in the crypto space and strong institutional demand for spot ETFs coincided with expectations of a December Fed rate cut, lifting sentiment. XRP extended its winning streak to three sessions on Tuesday, December 9, climbing to a session high of $2.1778 before easing back.

Given the prospects of a Fed rate cut, inflows into XRP-spot ETFs, and legislative developments, the short- to medium-term price outlook remains bullish.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

XRP-Spot ETF Inflows Outperform BTC-Spot ETFs

The US XRP-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $38.04 million on Monday, December 8, snapping four days of softer inflows. Monday’s inflows took total net inflows since launch to $935.39 million, edging closer to the $1 billion mark. Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) led the way, with net inflows of $31.7 million, its highest since $62.59 million in inflows on day one of trading. Flows for Tuesday, December 9, are expected later today.

Notably, the US XRP-spot ETF market outperformed the US BTC-spot ETF market, which reported net outflows of $60.4 million. Flow trends suggested a potential XRP-BTC decoupling. The US BTC-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $1.79 billion since November 14, Canary XRP ETF’s (XRPC) first day of trading, contrasting sharply with demand for XRP-spot ETFs.

Crypto journalist Paul Barron commented on the robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs, stating:

“The crypto curious are becoming crypto investors. XRP’s ETFs hit $1B in AUM in under 4 weeks, the fastest since ETH. With 40+ crypto ETFs launched in the US this year and Vanguard opening access through traditional accounts, we’re finally seeing the infrastructure catch up with the interest.”

Crucially, the US XRP-spot ETF market comprises four ETFs, while the BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETF markets have eleven and nine ETFs, respectively, and no BlackRock iShares XRP Trust.

Barron also highlighted:

“The barrier isn’t education anymore, it’s access. You don’t need to be a blockchain expert when crypto lives alongside your index funds in your existing brokerage account. Millions of Americans can now participate without learning a new system.”

Barron referred to Vanguard Group’s U-turn regarding crypto, allowing brokerage clients to invest in crypto-spot ETFs.

Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund Launches on Eve of Fed Interest Rate Decision

Meanwhile, XRP could see increased demand, following the launch of the Bitwise 10 Index Crypto Fund on Tuesday, December 9. Crypto in America host and journalist Eleanor Terret commented on the launch, stating:

“Bitwise Invest’s 10 Crypto Index Fund uplisted and began trading on NYSE Arca as an ETF today after being held up for a time by the SEC. The fund includes exposure to BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, LINK, LTC, SUI, AVA, and DOT.”

The SEC approved the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) conversion into an ETF in July, but also issued a stay order, preventing the ETF’s launch.

Crucially, the launch coincided with FOMC members meeting for their last monetary policy decision of the year. Market bets on a December Fed rate cut have fueled demand for BTC and the broader market.

For context, the chances of a December Fed rate cut had stood at 91.7% in October, sending XRP to a high of $2.6972. However, fading bets on a December cut sent XRP to a November 21 low of $1.8239. A Fed pivot on November 21 and revived bets on a December move boosted demand for XRP.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Hinged on the Fed and Spot ETF Flows

On Wednesday, December 10, the FOMC interest rate decision, Economic Projections, and dot plot will influence risk appetite. While traders expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, uncertainty about the Fed rate path through 2026 exposes XRP to heightened near-term price volatility.

The FOMC dot plot will likely be crucial as traders speculate about the number of Fed rate cuts in the year ahead.

A hawkish Fed rate cut, lowering rates by 25 basis points and projecting one further cut in 2026, would likely weigh on risk assets. Nevertheless, several tailwinds will likely limit the Fed’s effect on XRP’s short- to medium-term price outlook. These include:

• XRP-spot ETF launches and a broadening crypto investor base.
• The progress of crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• OCC grants Ripple a US-chartered banking license.

In my view, these potential tailwinds support a near-term (1-4 weeks) move to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise toward $2.5.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

While the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, several scenarios may derail the bullish outlook. These include:

• The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, a low-probability event.
• The Bank of Japan signals further rate hikes in 2026, triggering a yen carry trade unwind and market disruption.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings could dampen demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• US Senate opposes the Market Structure Bill.
• OCC rejects Ripple’s application for a US-chartered banking license.
• XRP-spot ETFs see heavy outflows.

These scenarios would likely push XRP below $2, bringing the November low of $1.82 into play.

However, in my opinion, strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs, hopes for crypto-friendly legislation, a broadening investor base, and a Fed rate cut will likely support a longer-term move toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP rose 1.64% on Tuesday, December 9, following the previous day’s 1.35% gain, closing at $2.1073. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which rallied 2.44%.

Despite a three-day winning streak, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias. However, fundamentals are shifting from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.2620.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4710.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Holding above the $2.0 psychological support level would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained break above the 50-day EMA would pave the way to the $2.35 resistance level. Significantly, a break above the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would support a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise to the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily flows.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI’s decision on DAT listings.
• The Fed and the BoJ’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance.

Bullish Structure: What Happens if $2.0 Holds?

Holding above the lower trendline and $2.0 would pave the way to the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would align with the medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.

However, a move below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

Outlook: Breaking $2.2 Resistance Key to Short-Term Outlook

XRP-spot ETFs will face their first real test on Wednesday, December 10, with the Fed potentially influencing institutional demand. A hawkish Fed interest rate cut and resilient inflows into XRP-spot ETFs would set the stage for a breakout toward $3.0.

However, legislative developments also require consideration, as Senators discuss the Market Structure Bill.

In summary, strong XRP-spot ETF inflows and a dovish Fed rate cut support a short-term move to $2.35. Progress toward crypto-friendly regulations and increasing XRP utility would align with the medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and a longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.