XRP News Today: ETF Flows Signal Medium-Term Upside

Fading bets on a June Fed rate cut sent XRP lower on Tuesday, February 24, as US economic data continued to surprise to the upside.

US consumer confidence surged in February, supporting a more hawkish Fed rate path, weighing on XRP.

However, easing fears over AI disruption and robust demand for XRP-spot and BTC-spot ETFs lifted sentiment late in the session on February 24. Inflows into spot ETFs remain crucial for XRP’s price trajectory.

Despite hovering below $1.40, the favorable fundamentals support a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook for XRP, with a price target of $2.0.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

US Consumer Confidence Dampens Fed Rate Cut Bets

On February 24, US economic data supported a more hawkish Fed rate path, weighing on XRP and the broader crypto market. The CB Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly rose from 89.0 in January to 91 in February. Economists had forecast 87.0.

Improving consumer sentiment could signal a pickup in consumption, fueling demand-driven inflation. A higher inflation outlook would delay Fed rate cuts. Elevated borrowing costs would curb leveraged and speculative trading in XRP and other crypto assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June Fed rate cut fell from 54.3% on February 23 to 49.6% on February 24.

However, US indices rebounded on February 24 as easing concerns about AI disruption overshadowed sentiment toward the Fed policy stance, bolstering demand for XRP. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.04% to close at 22,864.

US XRP-Spot and BTC-Spot ETF Flows Lift Sentiment

While waning bets on a Fed rate cut weighed on retail investor sentiment, institutional investor demand improved.

The US XRP-spot ETF market reported $3.04 million in net inflows on February 24, taking total net inflows to $1.23 billion. Notably, the XRP-spot ETF market has only seen five days of net outflow since launching in November, a tailwind for XRP.

Meanwhile, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $178.8 million on February 24, pending data for the iShares XRP Trust (IBIT). In contrast to the XRP-spot ETF market, the BTC-spot ETF market has only seen three days of net inflows in the last nine sessions. The pickup in institutional demand boosted buying interest in BTC and the broader crypto market.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

XRP has dropped 15.6% in February, affirming a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

However, resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs, optimism that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility reinforce the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several events could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• A US-Iran conflict.
• US economic data tempers bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

Additionally, traders should monitor Bank of Japan rhetoric and USD/JPY trends, given the impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.

A more hawkish-than-expected BoJ monetary policy decision in July 2024 sent USD/JPY crashing from 153.889 to 139.576, triggering a yen carry trade unwind, drying up market liquidity. XRP slid from a July 31, 2024, high of $0.6591 to an August 5, 2024, low of $0.4320, underscoring price sensitivity to BoJ policy decisions.

On February 24, USD/JPY briefly climbed to a high of 156.279 on easing bets on a BoJ rate hike, fueling yen carry trades into risk assets such as XRP. Notably, XRP rallied 3.66% to $1.3983 in morning trading on Wednesday, February 25.

However, a hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), would indicate multiple BoJ rate hikes. Multiple rate hikes would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials could trigger another yen carry trade unwind. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wide neutral rate band of 1%-2.5% but stated it would declare a tighter range at a later date.

These events would weigh on XRP, send the token toward $1.0, and reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP fell 0.24% on February 24, following the previous day’s 2.69% loss, closing at $1.3489. The token faced less severe losses than the broader crypto market cap, which dropped 0.62%.

The pullback left XRP trading well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish bias. The 50-day EMA fell further back from the 200-day EMA, signaling increased near-term selling pressure. However, several favorable fundamentals continue to counter bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Despite these favorable fundamentals, short-term technicals remain bearish.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.6332.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.0801.
• Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, a breakout above $1.50 would pave the way toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would bring the 200-day EMA into play.

A sustained move through the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and reinforce the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic indicators and the Fed policy stance.
• Crypto-related regulatory developments – the stablecoin yield stalemate.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and rate path.
• Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Key Support

Tuesday’s drop affirmed the existing bearish trend. A drop below the lower trendline would bring the February 6 low of $1.1227 into play. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall through $1.0 would reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, a break above $1.5 would enable the bulls to target the upper trendline and $2.0. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a bullish trend reversal, reinforcing the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Geopolitics, Crypto Legislation, and ETF Flows in Focus

Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East could influence market sentiment. A full-blown US-Iran conflict would likely overshadow crypto-related legislative developments.

Nevertheless, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill would reaffirm the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for XRP.

However, central bank rhetoric, US economic data, Trump’s State of the Union Speech, and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence XRP’s price outlook.

A more dovish Fed and a BoJ neutral rate potentially in the 1%-1.25% range would lift sentiment. Robust buying interest in US XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-friendly regulatory legislation would fuel demand for XRP.

In summary, these scenarios would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.0. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these events may drive XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A break above $3.66 would reaffirm a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.