XRP Price Analysis: Crash Toward $1 Likely After Latest Upside Rejection

XRP (XRP) is flashing renewed downside risk as it fails to reclaim a key distribution zone, with sentiment pressured by Donald Trump’s inconsistent messaging on the fragile US–Iran ceasefire, which continues to inject volatility into global markets.

Strong Case Emerges For XRP Decline Toward $1

As of Sunday, April 20, XRP was struggling to secure a close above its 100-period exponential moving average (100-period EMA, the purple wave) on the two-week chart.

That level has repeatedly acted as a firm resistance zone during past rebound attempts. In September 2022, for example, XRP failed to break above the same EMA before sliding 43.60%. A similar rejection in February 2020 preceded a steeper 58.75% decline.

In both cases, the sell-off eventually drove price back toward XRP’s multimonth ascending trendline support, which later served as the cycle bottom.

The setup now looks broadly similar. XRP’s inability to reclaim the 100-period EMA near $1.422 raises the risk of a deeper pullback toward its next major support at the 200-period EMA, around $1.00.

If historical price action repeats, the broader downtrend may begin to exhaust near the long-term ascending trendline support, which currently comes in around the $0.80–$1.00 region.

Macro Risks Return as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Resurface

XRP heads into the new week with geopolitical tensions back in focus after fresh friction around the Strait of Hormuz rattled sentiment across global markets. The development threatens to undermine the same risk-on backdrop that helped lift equities and crypto last week.

Iran warned over the weekend that any vessel entering the waterway “under any pretext” would be treated as violating the ceasefire, while reports of Revolutionary Guard action against commercial ships added to the tension.

What just happened?

Yesterday, at 8:45 AM ET, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for all commercial vessels.

At 9:06 AM ET, President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the Strait.

Then, at 10:20 AM ET, Trump said Iran and…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 18, 2026

Tehran has also reportedly backed away from a second round of US-Iran talks as long as the US naval blockade remains in place.

For XRP, that matters because a renewed oil shock could reinforce inflation fears and reduce expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing, a combination that typically weighs on speculative assets.

Trump’s shifting rhetoric added to the uncertainty. After signaling on Friday that a deal was close, he struck a far more aggressive tone by Sunday, threatening major retaliation if talks fail and claiming US forces had stopped an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.

In other words, XRP is struggling at a historically important resistance level right when the macro backdrop turns hostile again, increasing the risk that a technical rejection could snowball into a deeper pullback.