XRP Price Forecast: 3 Indicators Warn 30% Drop by October

XRP’s (XRP) bullish momentum may be fading fast as a trio of on-chain and technical indicators suggest the token is at risk of a sharp 30% correction before October.

Whale Outflows Accelerate as XRP Accumulation Dries Up

XRP’s largest holders are quietly exiting their positions.

CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader notes that the 90-day moving average of whale flow has “sharply flipped into negative territory,” reflecting renewed outflows from large wallets.

He compares the trend to the January–February 2025 peak, which also saw sustained whale distribution before XRP entered a multi-month correction.

“Unless we see sustained positive whale flows above +5M XRP/day, the market may remain structurally weak,” Enigma warned, adding that there’s currently no sign of consistent accumulation from large holders, a key condition for any sustained trend reversal.

If the selling continues at this pace, XRP’s price structure could crack below key support levels, accelerating a breakdown.

Over 95% of XRP Supply in Profit

Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that over 95% of XRP’s circulating supply is currently in profit, one of the highest levels in recent history.

Historically, such elevated profit margins among holders tend to precede sharp corrections, as investors, especially short-term speculators, rush to lock in gains. Similar peaks in profit-taking potential have coincided with local market tops in 2018, 2021, and early 2025.

Unless fresh inflows offset this incentive to sell, XRP risks a reflexive decline as profit-booking intensifies.

Bearish Wedge Pattern Targets 50-Week EMA

XRP’s weekly price chart is flashing another red flag in the form of a broadening wedge pattern, marked by higher highs and higher lows but with increasingly volatile swings.

The price currently hovers near the upper trendline of this formation, while the RSI shows a bearish divergence, making lower highs even as price rises. This divergence signals weakening upside momentum, a structure that mirrors XRP’s 2021 market top.

If XRP begins to break lower, the downside target aligns with the lower trendline of the wedge near the 50-week EMA, currently around $2.06, a potential 30% drop from current levels.

Historically, this EMA has acted as a mean-reversion level following overheated rallies.