XRP Price News: 13% Downside Risk for XRP If It Breaks This Key Support

XRP (XRP) has definitely been a disappointment lately, as this token failed to make a new all-time high during the latest bull market and also missed out on the recent relief rally.

Even though it is not the worst-performing asset of the top 5, XRP has been in consolidation mode for longer than any other.

We expected a break above $1.50 at least during the latest rally, but this sell wall continues to hold strong despite some interesting upticks in market sentiment.

Now we are back at the lower bound of the consolidation pattern, retesting what could be XRP’s last line of defense before a 13% drop.

We see high odds that this floor won’t resist the selling pressure, as on-chain data indicates a recent spike in net inflows to exchanges.

Exchange Inflows Spike to Highest Level Since December 2025

Data from Santiment shows that the 30-day moving average for exchange inflows rose to its highest level since December 2025. Back then, we saw a strong drop in the price of XRP, from $2.20 to $1.80 shortly afterward.

Exchange inflows indicate that deep-pocketed players are moving their tokens to liquid marketplaces like Binance and Coinbase, usually to dump them.

Hence, we could expect a steady increase in the selling pressure during the rest of the week, which is why we see a bearish breakout below $1.30 as a highly likely scenario at this point.

Despite this bearish metric, net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been positive for 17 days in a row. Quite a contrast compared to on-chain activity. It appears that Wall Street investors and crypto natives are pulling the ship in different directions.

Regardless of this divergence, we trust exchange inflows more. Hence, our baseline scenario is that XRP could retest its cycle lows over the next few days if bearish momentum accelerates.

XRP Faces 13% Downside Risk If The $1.13 Support is Lost

Heading to the daily chart, we can see that the token is retesting what has been a key demand zone for months. If it breaks this consolidation pattern, the market should be ready to move to lower ground.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms this bearish outlook, as the oscillator has dropped below 40, which is commonly considered a sell signal.

At this point, we would expect a breakout and take a short position right after to profit from the move. This trade offers a 3x risk-reward ratio if we are patient enough to wait for the price to drop back down to $1.13.

That said, we don’t expect a move below this level. The reason for this is that we have been tracking a bullish signal in the weekly chart that has yielded positive results in the past.

Weekly Buy Signal Holds Despite Recent Pullback

According to historical RSI patterns, every time this indicator has dropped below 32, it has marked the end of the previous bear market and the beginning of a strong bullish phase. This signal has a 100% win ratio.

However, the cycle’s low has been retested or at least neared at least once after the signal. Hence, a retest of $1.13 would not fully invalidate our thesis that XRP’s bear market is over.

In fact, if the price bounces off this mark, it could be a great opportunity for late buyers to enter the rally at the best possible price point. If that happens, our long-term target for the token sits at around $6.5, meaning a huge 400% upside potential.