S&P 500, Nasdaq: Tech Rally Faces Earnings Test Next Week

Nvidia and Meta Put the Record High in Play

The S&P 500 gained 0.42% to close at 7,575.39 on Friday, less than 0.5% below its June 2 record. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.29% to 26,281.61 and the Dow added 149.60 points, or 0.29%, to 52,637.01.

For the week the S&P 500 advanced 1.2% and the Nasdaq picked up 1.7%. The Dow was the only major average in the red, falling 0.5% over the five days. Nvidia climbed and Meta Platforms jumped on Friday and those two names carried the indexes higher into the close even with trading volume running well below average.

Daily S&P 500 Index (SPX) Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 Index recaptured its uptrend on Friday by overtaking a pair of swing tops at 7551.31 and 7577.92. Earlier in the week, buyers set up this move with a successful test of the 50-day moving average at 7432.20 and the crossover to the strong side of the short-term retracement zone at 7429.38 and 7474.57. The retracement zone and moving average are now support.

Although major buyers didn’t chase the market through 7577.92, the close at 7575.39 has put the index in a position to challenge it again early next week. Traders will be watching to see how buyers approach the record high at 7620.90. Are they going to claw their way higher or accelerate to the upside? Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday should be the source of heightened volatility and could be the catalyst that launches a surge into the record high at 7620.90.

Daily Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq Composite closed over the 50-day moving average at 26048.49 after recovering from two straight days on the bearish side of this indicator earlier in the week. The move created enough momentum to overcome the short-term 50% level at 26085.30 and the swing top at 26261.09, but not enough to break through the short-term Fibonacci level at 26346.05. Nonetheless, the strong close has put the index in a position to overcome this point on Monday, possibly setting in motion a drive into the June 16 main top at 26788.62. This is the last potential resistance before the all-time high at 27190.21.

Despite regaining the 50-day MA, a pivot and a swing top, the buying still looks a little tentative without a strong narrative as a catalyst. Investors are still floating the idea that AI and semiconductors are providing the major support, but it may take a catalyst like a dovish Fed or softening consumer inflation to encourage investors to chase the market higher at current lofty price levels. The upcoming earnings season should have some say as to future volatility.

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher on Friday and inside a series of pivots at 52295.54, 52452.02 and 52679.59. Despite gapping lower on Wednesday, the Dow recovered enough to create a new higher bottom at 52069.87. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.

Given the short-term range of 53289.30 to 52069.87, the near-term direction will be determined by trader reaction to its pivot at 52679.59.

Meta’s Custom Chip Report Powered a 15% Weekly Rally

Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on Meta Platforms after Reuters reported that an internal company memo showed Meta is making progress lowering the cost of its artificial intelligence infrastructure. Bank of America said the project could significantly cut AI infrastructure costs and improve long-term profitability. Investors have also been buying Meta’s recent AI initiatives including the Muse Spark 1.1 model launch.

Friday’s 6% gain pushed Meta’s weekly advance past 14%, the biggest weekly run for the stock since early 2024. Nvidia added roughly 4% and extended its lead in the AI trade. Two names out of 500 did most of the work on a session where 14.5 billion shares changed hands against a 20-session average of 22.4 billion. The market went higher but it did not go higher with conviction.

SK Hynix Raised $26 Billion and the Chips Held

SK Hynix priced its American depositary receipts at $149, opened at $170 on the Nasdaq and finished about 13% above the offering price in its U.S. debut. The listing raised more than $26 billion, one of the largest U.S. offerings in recent years.

The risk going in was that $26 billion in new paper would pull capital from the established memory names. It did not play out that way. Micron has run more than 200% in 2026 and Lam Research, Marvell Technology and Intel have each more than doubled this year on the AI infrastructure spending wave. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index added 0.06% for its third straight daily gain. A listing that size landed and the sector did not flinch.

Eight Sectors Finished Higher With Tech Leading

Information technology gained 1.65% on Friday and consumer discretionary added 1.46%, leading eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors into the green. Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by roughly 2.1-to-1 across the index. The breadth was there even if the volume was not. President Trump said Friday that Iran had requested additional talks with the United States, easing some of the geopolitical risk that built earlier in the week and clearing one overhang that had nothing to do with earnings or the Fed.

Stocks in the News

Moderna dropped nearly 11%, its worst single-day decline in more than a year. Delta Air Lines fell 1.8% after issuing a third-quarter profit forecast that topped analyst expectations, but investors sold the report looking for stronger guidance after the airline’s recent recovery.

Earnings Season Is the Next Test for a 20x Market

Banks report first and they are going to tell you whether the consumer held up through the second quarter or started pulling back. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post earnings growth of roughly 24% year-over-year according to LSEG I/B/E/S. The index is trading at about 20 times expected earnings, down from roughly 21 times in late May because profits grew into the valuation while the price sat near its high. That is room to run if the numbers come in clean. Delta already showed what happens when the numbers come in good but not good enough.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and Wednesday. June inflation data lands the same week. The S&P 500 is sitting one session below its record and bank earnings, consumer prices and Warsh are all hitting in a five-day window. Something in that stack is going to move the market and the technicals say it does not need much of a push in either direction.

What to Watch

The S&P 500 is less than 0.5% from its record and the question next week is whether earnings and the Fed give buyers the push to take it out. Bank earnings go first next week and the numbers will show whether consumers and businesses kept spending or started tightening up in the second quarter. Warsh goes in front of Congress the same week that June inflation prints and if that number runs hot he is going to get pressed on the rate outlook in real time. The AI trade is doing the work right now but the rest of the market needs a reason to follow and volume on Friday was the lightest in weeks.

The S&P 500 recaptured its uptrend by overtaking a pair of swing tops and is sitting just below the record. The 50-day moving average and the short-term retracement zone are now support underneath it. The Nasdaq closed back above its 50-day and cleared a swing top but is still under short-term Fibonacci resistance. The Dow is holding inside a cluster of pivots after gapping lower midweek and recovering. All three indexes need follow-through early next week or the setups reverse.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.