Brazil Interest Rate

Brazil’s central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 15.00% in December, saying a prolonged hold is needed to keep inflation on a steady path toward the target amid elevated uncertainty. External forces such as US economic conditions and global financial volatility continue to feed through to emerging markets, while at home growth is moderating even as the labour market shows resilience and inflation readings have cooled but remain above target. Inflation expectations stand at 4.4% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026, and Copom projects 3.2% by the second quarter of 2027. The committee flagged upside risks from more persistent services inflation and a weaker exchange rate as well as downside risks from a sharper domestic slowdown or falling commodity prices. It judged that holding the current rate for a fairly prolonged period is consistent with its strategy of converging inflation to target while smoothing the cycle, but said future policy adjustments may be necessary if risks materialize.