Brazil Interest Rate

The Central Bank of Brazil left its Selic rate steady at 15% in July, maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent inflation and global uncertainty. The decision reflects the Copom commitment to anchoring inflation expectations, which remain above target for 2025 and 2026, at 5.1% and 4.4% respectively. Policymakers cited increased volatility in global financial conditions driven by US fiscal and trade policies, as well as heightened geopolitical tensions. Domestically, economic activity has moderated, though the labor market remains strong, and both headline and core inflation have stayed elevated. Also, Copom emphasized the need for a prolonged period of significantly contractionary policy to steer inflation toward its 3% target. While the committee signaled a pause in its tightening cycle to assess lagging effects, it also reiterated its readiness to resume hikes if inflation pressures persist.