Brazil Interest Rate

Brazil’s central bank opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 15% in September, citing the need to keep inflation on a path toward the target amid persistent uncertainty. External factors, including US economic conditions and global financial volatility, continue to influence emerging markets, while domestically, growth is moderating but the labor market remains strong and inflation stays above target. Inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 remain elevated at 4.8% and 4.3%, with Copom projecting 3.4% for early 2027. The central bank highlighted upside risks such as resilient services inflation and a weaker exchange rate, alongside downside risks like a sharper domestic slowdown or falling commodity prices. Copom emphasized that future policy adjustments may be necessary to maintain price stability. The decision reflects a cautious approach, balancing the need for inflation control with support for economic activity.