Nasdaq 100: Nasdaq Flips Lower as Hot Payrolls Revive Rate-Hike Trade

Payrolls Tripled the Estimate and the Rate Trade Came Back Fast

U.S. stocks opened mixed Friday after August payrolls came in at 162,000, triple the 53,000 estimate. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. June and July were revised higher. Thursday’s rally had been built on Waller saying he would lean toward holding rates steady. Friday’s number gave the market a reason to bring Warsh’s rate-hike warning back.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.3%. The S&P 500 has slipped 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.1%.

Fed funds futures lifted September hike odds to 58% from 49.4% a day earlier. The 2-year Treasury yield rose more than seven basis points to 4.425%, its highest since January 2025. The 10-year climbed toward 4.80%.

Daily September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures Technical Analysis

September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are higher shortly after the opening Friday. After overtaking the 50-day moving average at 29371.17 on Thursday, traders are trying to build on the move with a sustained rally over the short-term 50% level at 29635.25.

The 50% level at 29635.25 is the price controlling the direction today.

A sustained move over 29635.25 will signal the presence of buyers. If the move gains traction, traders are likely to take a shot at overcoming 61.8% resistance at 29802.25 before attempting to break out over the swing top at 29811.50.

The swing top at 29811.50 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside, with the next target the August 17 main top at 30343.00.

A failure to sustain a move over 29635.25 will indicate weak buying or renewed selling pressure. This could trigger a pullback to the 50-day moving average at 29371.17. If it fails to hold, futures could retreat into the intermediate 50% level at 29150.75. This is the last potential support before the swing bottom at 28927.25.

162,000 Jobs Gave the Hawks Their Number

The market expected a weak report after July’s 23,000-job decline. August showed 162,000 new jobs with upward revisions to the prior two months. Waller gave traders room Thursday to question whether the Fed needed to hike in September. Friday’s number told the Fed it still has a labor market that can handle tighter policy.

The 2-year yield led the move. It reacts most directly to Fed expectations and it made a new high since January 2025 at 4.425%. The 10-year rose less than four basis points to 4.802%. The 30-year held near 5.26%. Next week’s inflation reports decide whether the payrolls number is enough to carry the Fed toward a hike. A cooler inflation reading gives Waller his argument back. A hot one alongside 162,000 jobs gives Warsh the stronger hand.

Thursday’s 600-Point Dow Rally Did Not Survive the Opening

The Dow gained more than 600 points Thursday. The S&P 500 rose more than 1%. The Nasdaq added 1.4%. Friday took part of that back immediately.

Financials fell 0.75%. Consumer discretionary dropped 1.21%, led by Lululemon’s collapse after its weak quarter and lower outlook. Energy fell 1.49%. Health care, materials and communication services were also lower.

Industrials gained 0.57%. Utilities were slightly higher. Technology rose 0.7%. The tape is separating the groups that can handle higher rates from the ones that cannot.

Chips Held the Bid and Software Broke

Astera Labs rose 11.63%. Seagate gained 6.25%. KLA added 5.76%. SanDisk rose 5.44%. Teradyne was also sharply higher. The semiconductor and hardware group is holding together on the AI infrastructure trade.

Adobe fell 7.36%. Autodesk dropped 6.3%. Thomson Reuters lost 5.54%. Workday fell 5.08%. Tesla gave back 5.04% after Thursday’s 7% surge. Thursday’s rate relief had pulled the software group higher. Friday’s payrolls report took that support away in the first hour.

The Nasdaq is up 0.1% because chip buyers stayed in the market. The index would be red without them.

Gold Miners Took Another Hit as Rate Odds Jumped to 58%

Gold miners took another hit. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF fell 3.76% with Silvercorp, Eldorado Gold, Franco-Nevada and Kinross all down more than 3.5%.

Lululemon fell nearly 18% after reporting a 4% revenue decline, a 9% drop in comparable sales and another cut to its full-year outlook. Revenue guidance came down to $10.35 billion to $10.5 billion from $11 billion to $11.15 billion. Third-quarter revenue is expected down 10% to 11% from a year ago.

What to Watch

Friday’s payrolls number put Warsh’s side of the Fed debate back in front. September hike odds went from a coin flip to 58% in one morning. The 2-year yield made a new high since January 2025. Next week’s inflation reports decide whether the payrolls number carries the Fed toward a hike or whether cooler prices give Waller room to argue for patience. Chips and hardware are holding the Nasdaq together. Software, gold miners, consumer discretionary and Tesla are showing where the rate pressure is landing.

The near-term read on the Nasdaq-100 is neutral with the payrolls report and thin pre-holiday volume creating a choppy trade. The 50% level at 29,635.25 is controlling the direction Friday. A sustained move over it opens 29,802.25 and the swing top at 29,811.50. The 50-day at 29,371.17 is support underneath. Monday is a holiday. The full reaction to 162,000 jobs may not show until next week when the inflation data starts landing.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.