Romania Interest Rate

The National Bank of Romania held its benchmark interest rate steady at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting on July 8, as it continued efforts to rein in inflationary pressures. Headline inflation accelerated to 5.45% in May—the highest level since April 2024—remaining well above the NBR's target range of 2.5% ±1 percentage point, largely driven by surging food and energy prices. On the economic front, GDP growth slowed to just 0.3% YoY in Q1, weighed down primarily by weak net exports. However, the labor market showed tentative signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate easing in April–May after peaking at 6% in Q1. Looking ahead, the NBR cautioned that inflation is likely to rise further in the short term, citing impending fiscal measures such as the expiration of electricity price caps and planned hikes in VAT and excise duties starting in August. Policymakers also reaffirmed their cautious policy stance amid persistent geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainty.