Bitcoin – Don’t Fall into the Bear Trap

Bitcoin slumped again on Monday, falling by 5.52% to end the day at $3,864.1, the reversal coming off the back of last week’s 27.8% tumble.

Sunday’s move back through to $4,000 levels and hold by the day’s end had the bulls calling yet another bottom to the cryptomarket, with year-end price forecasts being revised based on Bitcoin’s latest swing lo $3,657.6 struck in the early hours of Sunday morning.

For the Bitcoin bulls, moves through the early part of the morning on Monday may well have supported the upbeat sentiment from Sunday’s late in the day bounce back, but as we have seen on countless occasions, prior day momentum has a tendency to spill over to the following morning, the cryptomarket being 24-7 without an official shutdown.

Through the early hours of Monday, Bitcoin held onto $4,000 levels to strike a mid-morning intraday high $4,207.1 before investors jumped for safety, locking in Sunday and early Monday’s gains, a lack of momentum through the morning getting investors wary of another sell-off.

A reversal through the rest of the day saw Bitcoin fall through the day’s first major support level at $3,753.4 to a late afternoon intraday low $3,695.5 before finding support, the only good news being Bitcoin’s hold above Sunday’s swing lo $3,657.6.

Jumping back into Bitcoin off the back of a single day’s 4% gain does take some nerve and those that did would have ultimately been bitten by the resumption of the cryptomarket meltdown, with Bitcoin and the broader market’s losses on the day coming in spite of the news wires being relatively quiet by cryptomarket standards, though news of a possible programming flaw to Bitcoin wallets would have provided little comfort.

So, with the anti-crypto chatter at all-time highs, is there really a good price to get into Bitcoin?

Asking those that bought at sub-$1,000 and sold at just shy of $20,000 would certainly usher a different answer to those that bought at just shy at $20,000 and are still holding on in hope of the next wave. There is a vested interest after all for Bitcoin holders to talk up an imminent rally to refuel the herds to jump back in.

Any basis for another surge would be speculative at best near-term, with Bitcoin’s adoption as an alternative to fiat monies certainly not as widespread as Satoshi and the Bitcoin whales would have hoped.

The market cap is back to $122.29bn, with the broad based crypto-market sell-off even seeing Bitcoin lose some of its dominance, a combination of a broad based market reversal and fall in Bitcoin dominance a bearish signal, not only for Bitcoin, but for the cryptomarket in general.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.58% to $3,803.1, with the moves through the early morning seeing Bitcoin fall from a start of a day morning high $3,894.8 to a morning low $3,770 before steadying, the day’s major support and resistance levels left untested early on.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high to $3,900 levels would be needed to signal a possible afternoon rally to bring $4,000 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $4,148.97 into play, though we can expect plenty of resistance at $4,000 with the Bitcoin bears in full control and looking for the next level down.

Failure to move back through the morning high will likely see Bitcoin struggle in the red, with a pullback through the morning low $3,770 bringing the day’s first major support level at $3,637.37 into play. Of greater significance would a fall through Sunday’s swing lo $3,657.6, which would signal a possible slide to sub-$3,500 levels.