Economic Data from the UK to Put the Pound in Focus…
Earlier in the Day:
It was a particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats out in the early hours to provide the majors with direction.
While there were no stats, the PBoC was in action, with the RBA meeting minutes also out to draw attention.
In line with market expectations, the PBoC left loan prime rates unchanged in April.
The 1-year LPR was left unchanged at 3.85%, with the 5-year unchanged at 4.65%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77712 to $0.77739 upon the decision to hold rates steady that coincided with the release of the RBA meeting minutes.
This morning, the RBA released its meeting minutes from 6th April.
Salient points from the minutes included:
- The economic recovery in Australia was well under way and had been stronger than previously anticipated.
- Employment conditions returned to pre-pandemic levels, supporting a pickup in consumption to boost economic growth.
- The RBA expects the economic recovery to continue, with above-trend growth forecast in 2021 and 2022.
- Households and business balance sheets were in good shape and this is expected to continue to support spending.
- Wage and price pressure had remained subdued, however, and would likely remain so for several years.
- The RBA expects inflation to remain below 2% over both 2021 and 2022 after a brief rise to around 3% in the middle of the year.
- With regards to negative rates, the Board continued to view a negative policy rate as extraordinarily unlikely.
- Additionally, the board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range. Wage growth would need to be materially higher than it is currently. This would require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labor market.
- The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.27% to $0.7780.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Wholesale inflation figures from Germany are due out later today. Barring a marked pickup in wholesale inflationary pressures, however the numbers should have a relatively muted impact on the EUR.
The markets are anticipating a pickup in inflationary pressures near-term, which would be aligned with recent PMI surveys.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.06% to $1.2044.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar.
Average earnings, claimant counts, and employment change and February’s unemployment rate are due out.
Expect claimant counts for March and February’s unemployment rate to have the greatest influence on the Pound.
Away from the calendar, any unexpected rise in new COVID-19 cases following the easing of lockdown measures would test Pound support.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.3989.
Across the Pond
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback and the broader markets with direction.
The lack of stats will leave chatter from Capitol Hill and U.S foreign policy in focus.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.01% to 91.057.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of geopolitics and market risk sentiment on the day.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.15% to C$1.2516 against the U.S Dollar.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.