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Nikhil Khandelwal


The USD/INR pair kept the 10-day old downtrend intact as Modi Sarkar 2.0 released the Indian Budget for the fiscal year 2019-20. Nirmala Sitaram, the Indian Finance Minister, came up with her maiden budget, aiming to increase the country’s economic size to $5 billion by 2024. The highlight for the budget remained the downward revision of the fiscal deficit amid a sagging economy. The fiscal deficit was brought down from 3.4% to 3.3%, surprising the analysts who had forecasted more than 3.7% this time.

USDINR 180 Min 05 July 2019

No fiscal slippage means growth is now in RBI’s domain, so more than 25 bps rate cuts possible. Also, sovereign bonds may mean lower domestic issuance and not just this fiscal year, but going forward, this may be a new trend.”, said a senior fixed income trader at a private bank.



On the US economic docket, two highly significant events had lined up for the day. Out of which, the June Non-Farm Payrolls reported upbeat figures, reporting 64K higher than the market expectation of 160K. The other one was the June YoY Average Hourly Earnings that reported merely 0.1% lower than the consensus estimate of 3.2%. On an overall basis, the USD bulls appeared overtaking the USD bears, making the Greenback conquer new levels.

US Dollar Index 180 Min 05 July 2019

Since the start of July, the US Dollar was attempting rigorously, putting all energy to break and move above the strong 96.88 resistance. Somehow, on the back of positive US data releases, the Greenback accomplished this breach action. Though elevated, the USD Index continued to stay within the 9-day old ascending trend channel. With such strong price actions in the US Dollar Index, the overall sentiment has turned from bearish to bullish. The Greenback went above thrashing the significant 200-day SMA, which was the major barrier thwarting its upside movements.


On the backdrop of a Greenback rise, a drop in the Euro pair was quite obvious. During the day, the EUR/USD pair dropped from 1.1300 level, reaching 1.1260 level. Anyhow, the pair had already formed a descending triangle pattern signaling a near-by bearish formation.

EURUSD 180 Min 05 July 2019

However, if the Fiber had continued to drown, then the 1.1236 and 1.1215 support marks would have got activated. The RSI technical indicator was pointing near 33 level, revealing the sellers taking over the buyers. Earlier the day, the German May MoM Factory Orders came around -2.2% over -0.1% forecasts, pricing in more pullback.


During today’s session, the Loonie had lost some significant pips as Canadian June Net Employment figures missed estimates. The market had expected a 10.0K this time over the previous 27.7K statistics. Somehow, the actual numbers reported a negative 2.2K, pouring cold water over the Canadian economy.  While other reports that included the June Unemployment data and Average Hourly Earnings recorded in-line with the Street estimates. Laterwards, the June Ivey Purchasing Managers Index also reported weaker figures, 4.96% below estimates.

USDCAD 60 Min 05 July 2019

In the meantime, the USD/CAD pair was gathering strength amid Greenback upliftment and a Loonie decline. Anyhow, the positive price actions in the Loonie pair was insufficient to break the sturdy 1.3140 resistance. The RSI indicated a jump above 60 mark, showing huge buyer interest.


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