It’s Risk on with the Markets Hoping for a Resolution to the Trade War

The Yen takes a hit as hopes of an end to the trade war build on the eve of the G20 Summit.
Bob Mason
Currency exchange notice board

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data was on the lighter side through the Asian session this morning. Japan retail sales and New Zealand business confidence figures provided direction early on.

Outside of the stats, optimistic chatter from the U.S administration ahead of the G20 provided support for riskier assets to pin back the Yen.

For the Japanese Yen

Retail sales increased by 1.2% in May, month-on-month, which was in line with forecast. Retail sales increase by 0.4% in April.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.726 to ¥107.759 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.20% to ¥108.01 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar

The ANZ Business Confidence Index slid from -32 to -38.1 in June. Economists had forecast a rise to -22.

According to the latest ANZ Business survey,

  • The firms’ views of their own activity fell by 1 point to +8, with the other activity indicators holding relatively steady.
  • Employment intentions, investment intentions, and capacity utilization were all unchanged at 0, +3 and +5 respectively.
  • A net 40% of firms expect it to be tough to get credit, down 4 points.
  • Export intentions rose by 5 points.
  • Profit expectations fell by 3 points to a net 13% expecting profit to decline.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66837 to $0.66833 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.01% to $0.6682.


The Aussie Dollar was up by 0.11% to $0.6993.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic data front.

Key stats include June prelim inflation figures for Spain and Germany and Eurozone business confidence numbers.

With the ECB willing to step in should inflationary pressures ease, we can expect the EUR to be responsive to the inflation numbers.

Business confidence will also impact the EUR on the day.

Outside of the numbers, we can expect the markets to particularly sensitive to any chatter from the U.S and Beijing ahead of the G20 Summit that kicks off tomorrow.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.07% to $1.1361.

For the Pound

There are no material stats due out of the UK today to provide direction for the Pound.

The lack of stats will leave chatter from Conservative Party leadership candidates Johnson and Hunt in focus.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% to $1.2686.

Across the Pond

It’s another relatively busy day on the economic calendar.

Finalized 1st quarter GDP figures are due out of the U.S along with the weekly jobless claims figures.

Later in the U.S session, May pending home sales numbers are also due out.

Barring any deviation from 2nd estimates, the weekly jobless claims and pending home sales numbers will likely have the greatest influence.

Outside of the numbers, it’s the eve of the heavily anticipated G20 Summit. Any chatter on trade and/or Iran will have an impact on risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.07% to 96.281.

For the Loonie

There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.

We can expect crude oil prices to provide direction on the day. Market sentiment towards the economic outlook, rising tensions in the Middle East and the extended trade war remain the key drivers.

The Loonie was down by 0.02% to C$1.3130, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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