PrimeXBT Insights: Oil Passes $100; Five Markets That React to a Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock

Brent crude has crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since July, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz keeps falling and supply risk keeps building. Brent and WTI have climbed steadily since the end of August with the sharpest moves in the past week.

The cause is the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the waterway, which normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, has been reduced since the war began in February, and the US resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports in July. Recent days have brought an Iranian plan for a new exclusion zone around the strait and reported explosions near Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal. Goldman Sachs and HSBC both say Brent could reach $120 if flows stay near current levels, though HSBC’s base case for 2026 is closer to $90.

Oil rarely stays contained to the oil market but often has a domino effect. Below are the five markets a move like this can show up next, in the order it usually happens.

1. Crude Oil: Brent and WTI

Oil reacts first because it is the market directly affected. There are two important facts to know for anyone trading it now.

First, inventories are low. Governments released 400 million barrels from reserves in March to cap prices, and those stockpiles have been drawn down since. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is below 290 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982. That means there is less of a cushion if supply is disrupted again, so each new incident moves the price further than it would have in the spring.

Second, the spread between Brent and WTI has widened to around $5. Brent reflects seaborne supply and Gulf risk; WTI reflects US production, which is unaffected by Hormuz. When the gap widens it usually means the market is pricing a shipping problem rather than a global shortage.

PrimeXBT Brent and WTI daily chart, February to September: marking the March release of strategic reserves, the July peak, and the move above $100 in September.

2. Gold

Gold’s response to the conflict has shifted. At the start of the war it initially rose on safe-haven demand, but that support quickly faded as higher oil prices fed inflation concerns and pushed interest-rate expectations higher.

Since late August, gold has fallen by roughly $300, from a peak near $4,700 to around $4,400 at the time of writing, while oil has moved sharply higher.

The market is increasingly treating higher oil as an inflation problem. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.84%, its highest since November 2023, while futures markets price roughly a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates on 16 September.

Gold pays no interest, so higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding it. For now, the inflation and rates impact of higher oil is outweighing some of gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. That relationship could change if the conflict escalates enough to produce a stronger flight to safety or materially weaken the growth outlook.

PrimeXBT chart showing Gold and the US 10-year Treasury yield, February to September 2026, with gold retreating from its late-August high as the 10-year yield climbed towards 4.8%.

3. Currencies

Japan shows this clearly. It imports almost all of its energy, so higher oil adds directly to inflation pressure. Alongside broader inflation and the yen’s earlier weakness, that has strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates on 18th September. Those expectations have helped drive a sharp recovery in the yen, with USD/JPY falling from around 163 to about 153.5, leaving the currency near its strongest level since February.

The UK sits in a similar spot. UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July, while the Bank of England expects higher energy prices to add further inflation pressure later this year. Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee already voted for a rate rise in July. GBP/USD is being driven more by relative UK and US rate expectations than by oil directly.

The US dollar has been supported by the Fed hike expectations that oil has helped create, though the dollar index has eased to around 99 as the yen has strengthened. Commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone tend to benefit from higher oil, but usually only while global growth holds up.

4. Stock Indices

Equities react to oil through two routes. The first is cost: airlines, shipping, chemicals and consumer companies pay more for energy, and margins fall. The second is rates: a 10-year yield near 4.8% raises the discount rate applied to future earnings, which hits growth and technology stocks hardest.

At the time of writing, US index futures have moved on from a strong earnings season to focus on yields and the Fed. Energy stocks are the exception and have outperformed. Indices in Europe and Asia are more exposed than the US, because those regions import more of their energy and their consumers have less protection from higher fuel prices. US diesel has hit record prices, a cost that shows up in almost every company’s supply chain.

5. Bitcoin and Crypto

Bitcoin has not behaved consistently like a safe haven during this conflict. It has been reacting mainly to what investors think the Fed will do with interest rates. When markets started expecting higher rates after Jackson Hole and again after the strong August jobs report, Bitcoin fell. Its link with the Nasdaq has not been stable, so the better way to read the recent moves is through rates and the Fed. For now, changes in interest-rate expectations are having more influence on Bitcoin’s short-term direction than news from the crypto market itself.

For crypto traders this is important because the driver of their market is currently sitting in the oil and bond markets, not on a crypto chart. A trader who only watches BTC/USD sees the move after it has happened.

PrimeXBT chart showing Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, August to September, rebased to 100, with Bitcoin gaining about 21% versus roughly 4% for the Nasdaq 100.

Trading These Markets with PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT, a global multi-asset broker, lets traders follow this chain of reactions from one account. Its platform PXTrader 2.0 offers more than 350 instruments, including Brent and WTI, gold, USD/JPY and GBP/USD, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and crypto futures, so a trader can move from oil to the yen to Bitcoin, diversify across markets and react to different opportunities without switching platforms or accounts.

Accounts can be held in USD, USDT, USDC, BTC or ETH, so crypto holders can use Bitcoin or Ethereum as margin when trading markets such as oil, gold and indices, without first converting to fiat.

A conflict like this can push traders to adjust positions more often, which makes the cost of each adjustment more important. PrimeXBT spreads start from 0 pips on EUR/USD, from $0.35 on gold and from 0.4 points on the S&P 500, with no commission on CFDs. There is no minimum deposit for trading accounts and no PrimeXBT fee on deposits or withdrawals. Broker’s VIP tiers loyalty program for active traders cuts spreads by up to 25% on Forex and CFDs, with gold and Bitcoin eligible for discounts of up to 50%, while Crypto Futures taker fees can be reduced by up to 70%. Traders can also use their Rewards Center balance to buy a VIP tier rather than waiting to qualify through trading volume.

Much of this conflict’s news has broken outside normal market hours. PrimeXBT’s Gold 24/7 instrument trades through Saturdays and Sundays, so traders can adjust or close gold positions when news breaks rather than waiting for the traditional market to reopen. Weekend spreads are wider and higher margin requirements apply. PrimeXBT also offers negative balance protection, which means a client cannot owe the broker more than the funds in the account, and a free demo account, which allows traders to test the platform and strategies with virtual funds before trading live.

Conclusion

A supply shock in the Strait of Hormuz does not stay in the oil market. It moves through inflation expectations into bond yields, from yields into currencies and the Fed outlook, and from there into equities and crypto. The sequence can vary, but traders who follow those links can better understand what is driving the next move across markets, before it appears on the chart they are watching.

Start trading with PrimeXBT.

About PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT is a global multi-asset broker and crypto asset service provider trusted by traders in more than 150 countries. The platform bridges traditional and digital markets within one integrated environment, redefining versatility and innovation in online trading. Clients can access Forex, CFDs on indices, commodities, shares, crypto, and Crypto Futures, as well as buy, store and exchange cryptocurrencies. This unified experience extends across both the native PXTrader 2.0 platform and MetaTrader 5, supported by advanced risk-management tools and a wide range of funding options in crypto, fiat and local payment methods. Since 2018, PrimeXBT has focused on empowering traders through broad multi-asset access, fair and transparent conditions, professional-grade technology and dedicated human support. By combining expertise, trust and a client-first approach, PrimeXBT sets a benchmark of excellence in the financial industry and provides traders with the tools they need to trade, grow and succeed with confidence.

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