Soybean Down Friday but Positive on Week; Russia’s Wheat Export Estimates Down

Soybean, corn, and wheat are trading positive on Friday as investors digested weather reports and concerns about a supply crisis in the months to come. Also, Russian analysts are now cutting its 2019 Russian exports estimates.

While in the United States rains don’t stop, it looks like the storms are not arriving in Russia. IKAR and SovEcon, Russian agriculture consultants, has downgraded forecast for Russia’s wheat exports for 2019 and 2020 amid dry weather.

“The market continues to watch the Black Sea weather closely where hot and dry weather continues to threaten the new crop,” SovEcon said.

Ikar cut its forecast of wheat exports by 5000K tonnes to 36.5 million. Grains exports were also reduced by 1.4 million tonnes to 46 million.

SovEcon cut Russian wheat exports estimates by 6000K tonnes to 37.6 million tonnes in 2019 and 2020. Expectations for grains exports were reduced to 5000K tonnes to 48.9 million tonnes.

Grains report for Friday, June 21, 2019

Soybean prices are trading down on Friday as the bushel wasn’t able to extend gains above the 9.100 area. Now, the unit is moving at 9.055, 0.50% negative on the day.

On the week, soybean is closing its second week with gains as the unit extended gains above the 8.800 area and it is closing above the 9.000 key level. A mix of planting delays and geopolitical factors are pushing the grain back to 2019 highs and December-March range.

Corn is trading positive for the second day as investors are digesting more wet weather but also cold temperatures in the corn belt of the United States. The unit is trading 0.40% positive on Friday, adding gains after the 2.20% performed Thursday.

A volatile week for corn as the unit has moved as high as 4.590, but also as low as 4.320 before closing the week with virtually no gains and no losses. Corn is now 0.15% positive on the week, but the unit is fighting to decide what side it is going to take before the closing bell.

Wheat prices are extending its recovery from 5.100 as it is trading positive for the second day in a row. Wheat is now trading at 5.250, consolidating gains above the 5.200 area.

However, in the weekly chart, the story is different as wheat is ready to close the week with losses after the sharply gain performed in the previous period. In the last six weeks, this would be the second negative period.

Coffee and Sugar

Coffee is ready to close its first positive week after two negative periods as the unit found support at 96.25 on Wednesday and it logged two positive days until today’s 3.4% daily gain to recover the 100.00 level and test the 200-day moving average at 102.20.

Currently, Coffee futures are trading at 101.75 with technical studies suggesting more recoveries next week. However, the reading should be taken with a grain of salt as today is Friday, and some profit taking could be undergoing.

Sugar is trading negative for the fifth day in a row amid reports that the sugar production rose over 3% year to year in May and June.

In the last five days, sugar has fallen 2.5% from 0.1270 to trade at current levels of 0.1235. It would be its first negative week in the previous five.