The Week Ahead – Brexit, the ECB, the FED and the Stats are in Focus
On the Macro
For the Dollar:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead. Key stats due out of the U.S include factory orders on Monday, inflation figures on Wednesday and April consumer sentiment figures due out on Friday.
Wholesale inflation figures due out on Thursday, along with the weekly jobless claims figures, will also influence.
Outside of the stats, the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will have also have an impact.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up 0.11% to $97.395
For the EUR:
Economic data includes trade data out of Germany on Monday, and Eurozone industrial production figures due out on Friday. Through the week, finalized March inflation figures out of Spain, France and Germany will unlikely have a material impact.
Outside of the numbers, the ECB monetary policy decision and all-important press conference will be the main event on Wednesday.
The EUR/USD ended the week down 0.02% to $1.1216.
For the Pound:
After a quiet start to the week, economic data due out on Thursday will have an impact on the Pound. Key stats include GDP, industrial production and trade figures. Whilst we can expect the Pound to respond, Brexit will remain the key driver through the week.
The GBP/USD ended the week up 0.02% at $1.3038.
For the Loonie:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead. Housing sector figures due out on Monday and Thursday will unlikely have a material impact on the Loonie.
OPEC and the IEA will release their monthly reports in the week, which will have a greater influence, as will any further progress on trade talks between the U.S and China.
The Loonie ended the week down 0.26 % to C$1.3384 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead. Key stats are limited to home loan figures due out on Tuesday and consumer sentiment figures due out on Wednesday.
We expect consumer sentiment figures to have the greatest influence.
Outside of the numbers, the RBA will release its Financial Stability Review on Friday, which will need to be considered. While there are unlikely to be too many surprises, any downward revisions to growth forecasts would weigh on the Aussie Dollar.
Stats out of China will also need to be factored in, with inflation and trade data due out on Thursday and Friday.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week up 0.13% to $0.7105.
For the Japanese Yen:
It’s a particularly quiet week ahead. February current account figures due out on Monday are the only key stats for the week.
Outside of the numbers, BoJ Governor Kuroda is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Any talk of further easing could hit the Yen.
The Japanese Yen ended the week down 0.78% to ¥111.73 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
Another quiet week ahead, leaves Business PMI and electronic card sales to provide direction on Thursday.
With a lack of stats in the early part of the week, market risk sentiment will have some influence early on.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down 1.09% to $0.6730.
Out of China:
March inflation figures due out on Thursday and trade data due out on Friday will dictate market risk sentiment late in the week.
Ahead of the numbers, updates from trade talks between the U.S and China will likely continue to provide direction.
IMF Spring Meetings: While not a major market mover, chatter over the global economic outlook could have an impact on risk appetite. The spring meetings are set to get underway on Friday, 12th April.
U.S – China Trade War: It could be the week that tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the U.S get removed. Expectations will be for a trade agreement to have been reached before the IMF spring meetings kick-off. The U.S will need to do away with the tariffs to get close the deal.
Brexit: The EU’s deadline is for Britain to have a deal in place is 10th April. The current Brexit departure date is 12th April. A House of Lords vote and an EU Summit will be in focus in the early part of the week. Updates from Conservative – Labour Party talks from the weekend will need to be monitored. Any hint of a compromise and expect the Pound to rally.
On the monetary policy front,
For the EUR, the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference on Wednesday will be the main event. Any further details on tiered deposit rates and negative sentiment towards growth will hit the EUR. Stats are stacked against the bulls for now…
For the USD, the FOMC meeting minutes from the March meeting will be in focus on Wednesday. The markets will be looking for any guidance on when to expect a rate cut, if at all. While economic growth has slowed, it’s not panic stations just yet. A pause may be sufficient to weather the storm… FED Chair Powell is also scheduled along with a number of FOMC members through the week.