The Week Ahead – Economic Data and Monetary Policy to Keep the Markets Busy

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 49 stats in focus in the week ending 25^th June. In the week prior, 61 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Private sector PMIs for June are due out on Wednesday. Expect the services PMI to be the key driver.

The focus will then shift to core durable goods orders and jobless claims figures on Thursday.

At the end of the week, inflation and personal spending numbers wrap things up.

Other stats include finalized 1^st quarter GDP numbers, durable goods orders, and finalized consumer sentiment figures. These should have a muted impact on the Dollar, however.

On the monetary policy front, FED Chair Powell testimony will draw interest on Tuesday. FOMC member chatter will also need monitoring in the week.

In the week, the Dollar ended the week up by 2.32% to 92.225.

For the EUR:

It’s a busier week on the economic data front.

Early in the week, consumer confidence figures for the Eurozone will be in focus on Tuesday.

The market attention will then shift to prelim private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out on Wednesday.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers. Following some weak stats from Germany, however, Germany’s manufacturing PMI will likely have a greater impact on the day.

Through the remainder of the week, the German economy remains in focus.

Business confidence and consumer confidence figures are due out on Thursday and Friday.

From the ECB, President Lagarde is scheduled to speak on Monday, with the ECB Economic Bulletin due out on Thursday.

Both will provide the EUR with direction in the week.

The EUR ended the week down by 2.50% to $1.1863.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

CBI Industrial Trend Orders are due out on Tuesday ahead of prelim private sector PMIs on Wednesday.

Expect the UK’s services PMI to be the key driver.

The main event of the week, however, is the BoE monetary policy decision.

Dissent or hawkish chatter would be needed to give the Pound a boost following the government’s delay on fully reopening the UK.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will also be in focus. We have seen the Pound struggle of late, as a result of a spike in new Delta strain cases.

The Pound ended the week down by 2.45% to $1.3810.

For the Loonie:

It’s another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Retail sales figures are due out on Wednesday. With little else for the markets to consider in the week, expect plenty of influence from the numbers.

Crude oil inventory numbers will also influence mid-week.

The Loonie ended the week down 3.15% to C$1.2465 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead.

Prelim retail sales figures for May will be in focus on Monday. With no other stats to consider in the week, a larger than expected rise in sales would deliver support.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 3.36% to $0.7479.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a quiet week ahead.

Trade data for the 1^st quarter will provide direction. The markets will have to wait until Friday for the numbers, however.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 3.85% to $0.6936.

For the Japanese Yen:

Prelim private sector PMI numbers for June will be in focus on Wednesday. Expect both the services and manufacturing PMIs to draw interest.

The focus will then shift to inflation figures due out on Friday. We don’t expect the numbers to have a material impact on the Yen, however.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.60% to ¥110.21 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead, with no major stats to influence market risk sentiment.

While there are no stats to consider, the PBoC will set its Loan Prime Rates on Monday. Any increase in LPRs would catch the markets off-guard.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.90% to CNY6.4531 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

While there are no major risks to consider on the geopolitical risk front, the markets will need to look out for any rhetoric in the wake of the Iranian Presidential Election. There’s also China, Russia, and North Korea to keep an eye on…