The Week Ahead – Economic Data, Central Bank Chatter, and COVID-19 Vaccine News in Focus
It’s another busy week ahead on the economic calendar. While stats will influence, central bank chatter in the week, and COVID-19 vaccine news will also infuence.
On the Macro
It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 50 stats in focus in the week ending 14th May. In the week prior, 57 stats had been in focus.
For the Dollar:
In the 1st half of the week, JOLT’s job openings and inflation figures are due out.
Expect inflation figures for April on Wednesday to have the greatest impact on the Dollar.
Later in the week, wholesale inflation and jobless claims figures will be in focus on Thursday.
While wholesale inflation figures will draw interest, the markets will be looking for another fall in jobless claims. Avoiding a return to 500k levels would give riskier assets a boost.
At the end of the week, retail sales, industrial production, and prelim consumer sentiment figures wrap things up.
Expect the retail sales and consumer sentiment figures to be the key drivers.
In the week, the Dollar ended the week down by 1.15% to 90.233.
For the EUR:
It’s a quieter week on the economic data front.
On Tuesday, German and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment figures for May will provide the EUR with direction.
Expect the numbers to influence.
The focus will then shift to industrial production figures for the Eurozone on Wednesday. With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect some EUR sensitivity to the numbers.
Through the 2nd half of the week, finalized inflation figures from Germany, France, and the Eurozone are also due out. Barring marked revision from prelim numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence on the EUR.
From the ECB, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes will also draw interest.
The EUR ended the week up by 1.21% to $1.2166.
For the Pound:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
Retail sales figures for April are due out on Tuesday ahead of a busy Wednesday.
The markets will be looking for another jump in spending as the UK economy reopens.
On Wednesday, 1st quarter GDP numbers are due out along with industrial and manufacturing production and trade data.
While we expect the GDP numbers to be key, March manufacturing production and trade figures will also draw attention.
On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey is also scheduled to speak in the week. Any comments on the economy or monetary policy will provide the Pound with direction.
The Pound ended the week up by 1.17% to $1.3984.
For the Loonie:
It’s another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
Economic data is limited to manufacturing sales and wholesale sales figures due out on Friday.
On the monetary policy front, BoC Governor Macklem is scheduled to speak on Thursday.
With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect crude oil inventory numbers and OPEC and IEA monthly reports to also provide direction.
The Loonie ended the week up 1.26% to C$1.21000 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s another relatively quiet week ahead.
Key stats include business confidence and retail sales figures on Monday and consumer sentiment figures on Wednesday.
With the RBA looking for business investment and consumer spending to support the recovery, expect the numbers to influence.
Late in the week, wage growth figures for the 1st quarter will also provide direction.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 1.66% to $0.7844.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead.
On Wednesday, electronic card retail sales are due out ahead of business PMI numbers on Friday.
Following some positive numbers from March, the markets will be looking for further improvement to support the Kiwi.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.62% to $0.7278.
For the Japanese Yen:
It is a quiet week ahead. Household spending figures for March will be in focus on Tuesday.
Another jump in spending would provide some hope of a speedier economic recovery that should support the Yen.
The Japanese Yen rose by 0.65 to ¥108.60 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
It’s a quieter week ahead.
Inflation figures for April are due out on Tuesday. While the numbers tend to influence market risk sentiment, the markets are expecting a pickup in inflationary pressures. This should, therefore, limit the impact on the global financial markets.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.64% to CNY6.4332 against the U.S Dollar.
Geo-Politics
While there are no major risks to consider, the markets will need to continue to eye U.S – China relations.
There’s also the progress towards a new Iran nuclear agreement to track in the week.
