The Week Ahead – Geopolitics, the RBNZ and Stats in Focus

Geopolitics is in focus, with Brexit, Iran, and the U.S – China trade war likely to keep the markets busy. Stats and the RBNZ are also of influence.
Bob Mason
Forex Markets Currency Trading Concept.

On the Macro

For the Dollar:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

September’s prelim private sector PMI numbers get the week started on Monday, with consumer confidence figures due out on Tuesday.

We can expect the Dollar to be particularly sensitive to the service sector PMI and the consumer confidence figure.

The market focus will then shift to 3rd estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter due out on Thursday. Any deviations from the 2nd estimate will impact.

August trade data and the weekly jobless claims figures due out on Thursday will also need some attention.

August durable goods orders, the FED’s preferred PCE Price Index figures, personal spending, and prelim consumer sentiment numbers round off the week.

Barring dire numbers, we would expect housing sector data due out on Wednesday and Thursday to have a muted impact.

On the monetary policy front, FOMC member chatter will also provide direction.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.21% to $98.462.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

September prelim private sector PMI numbers are due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone on Monday.

While we expect Germany’s manufacturing PMI and the Eurozone’s composite to have the greatest influence, service sector activity will need to hold steady.

The focus will then shift to September business sentiment figures due out of Germany on Tuesday.

With no stats due out on Wednesday, German consumer sentiment figures on Thursday and French consumer spending numbers on Friday will also influence.

Outside of the stats, the ECB will also release its economic bulletin on Thursday.

On the geopolitical front, Brexit will continue to influence. Any progress on solving the Irish backstop issue would be EUR positive.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.51% to $1.1017.

For the Pound:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Economic data is limited to September’s CBI Industrial Trend Orders due out on Monday.

While the Pound will respond, Brexit will continue to be the key driver throughout the week.

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 0.18% to $1.2478.

For the Loonie:

It’s also a particularly quiet week ahead on the data front.

Economic data due out of Canada is limited to July wholesale sales figures. Barring dire numbers, we expect the Loonie to show little reaction to the numbers.

Through the week, crude oil prices and sentiment towards the global economic outlook and trade will be the key drivers.

The Loonie ended the week up by 0.19% to C$1.3263 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the Economic data.

There are no material stats due out of Australia to provide the Aussie Dollar with direction. A lack of stats will leave the Aussie Dollar exposed to geopolitical risk through the week.

Any negative chatter on trade or dire private sector PMI numbers out of the Eurozone or the U.S would be negative.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 1.64% to $0.6766.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

September’s Tokyo core inflation figures are due out on Friday. With the BoJ signaling the possibility of further easing next month, the numbers will need to impress to support the Yen.

With economic data on the lighter side, market risk sentiment will continue to drive the Yen.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.49% to ¥107.56 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a busy week ahead. While economic data is limited to August trade data, due out on Wednesday, the RBNZ will also deliver its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Having delivered a larger than anticipated rate cut last month, a dovish hold could send the Kiwi to new lows.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 1.87% to $0.6258.

Out of China:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic data front. There are no material stats to influence the markets in the week.

The lack of stats will leave the markets focused on trade news.

The Yuan ended the week down by 0.17% to CNY7.0909 against the Greenback.


Iran: Will there be pressure for the U.S to deliver a military response that could drive risk aversion across the global financial markets and spike crude oil prices? The UN Security Council meeting in the week ahead will garner plenty of interest.

Trade Wars:  Following Friday’s decision by China to cancel U.S farm visits and Trump’s reaction, market sensitivity to trade war chatter will likely return. Any updates from Beijing or Washington will influence risk sentiment in the week.

UK Politics: Juncker gave the Pound with support last Wednesday, but it wasn’t enough to prevent a weekly loss. The Supreme Court will decide on whether the suspension of Parliament was lawful.  While the ruling will throw UK politics into more chaos, the key will be addressing the backstop issue. Talk of a 30th September deadline for proposals on the Irish backstop issue leaves the PM with little wriggle room.

The Rest

The RBNZ:  The RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. Following a 50 basis point rate cut last month, will there be suggestions of more to come to sink the Kiwi? Uncertainty over the U.S – China trade war remains following Friday’s negative chatter.

Corporate Earnings: Corporate earnings season kicks off once more and will certainly be of interest as the U.S – China trade war wages on. First up, from the heavyweights, is Nike on Tuesday…

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.