The Week Ahead – Private Sector PMIs and the Jackson Hole Symposium Key Areas of Focus
On the Macro
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 50 stats in focus in the week ending 30th August. In the week prior, 52 stats had also been in focus.
For the Dollar:
In the first half of the week, prelim private sector PMIs and core durable goods will draw interest.
Expect the services PMI on Monday and core durable goods on Wednesday to be the key drivers.
On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter will be in focus.
Barring any revisions from 1st estimates, the jobless claim figures will be key.
At the end of the week, the inflation and personal spending numbers wrap things up.
Finalized consumer sentiment figures for August are also due out. Expect any revisions to influence, particularly to the downside.
On the monetary policy front, the markets will also respond to chatter from Jackson Hole. This is expected to be the key driver for the Dollar and the broader markets. The Symposium commences on 26th August.
In the week ending 13th August, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 1.06% to 93.496.
For the EUR:
It’s a busier week on the economic data front.
Prelim private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be in focus on Monday.
Expect plenty of influence from the numbers. Late in the day on Monday, Eurozone consumer confidence figures will also draw interest.
On Tuesday, German GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter will draw attention ahead of business sentiment figures on Wednesday.
Germany’s headline Ifo Business Climate Index numbers for August will be key.
Wrapping things up on Thursday, German consumer confidence figures will also influence.
Both business and consumer confidence are key to a sustainable economic recovery. Weak numbers could further weigh on the EUR.
For the week, the EUR fell by 0.84% to $1.1698.
For the Pound:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
Prelim private sector PMIs for August will be in focus on Monday along with CBI Industrial Trend Orders.
Expect the services PMI to be the key driver.
Away from the economic calendar, UK politics and central bank chatter will also need monitoring.
The Pound ended the week down by 1.75% to $1.3623.
For the Loonie:
It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
RPMI numbers for July is the only data for the markets to consider in the week.
With the numbers due out on Friday, market risk sentiment and prelim private sector PMIs from elsewhere will drive market risk appetite and ultimately the Loonie.
The Loonie ended the week down 2.45% to C$1.2821 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
Retail sales figures for July are due out on Friday and will be the key stat of the week.
With lockdown measures in place, the markets will be looking to assess the damage.
Other stats include construction work down and new CAPEX expenditure for the 2nd quarter.
Thursday’s CAPEX numbers will draw interests ahead of the retail sales figures.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 3.23% to $0.7132.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a quiet week ahead.
Retail sales for the 2nd quarter will provide the Kiwi with direction on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, trade data for July will also influence.
Following the RBNZ decision to hit the pause button, COVID-19 news updates will also influence.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 2.94% to $0.6835.
For the Japanese Yen:
It’s a quiet week ahead.
Private sector PMIs for August will be in focus on Monday. The markets will be looking for a pickup in service sector activity and for continued growth across the manufacturing sector.
Tokyo inflation figures for August are also due out at the end of the week.
Barring a marked pickup in inflationary pressures, however, the numbers are unlikely to move the dial.
The Japanese Yen fell by 0.17% to ¥109.780 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
There are no material stats to provide the markets with direction in the week ahead.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.37% to CNY6.5015 against the U.S Dollar.
Iran and China continue to be the main areas of interest for the markets. News updates from the Middle East, in particular, will need continued monitoring…
Chatter from Capitol Hill over Afghanistan will also need monitoring.