Bob Mason
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The Stats

It was a quieter week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 23rd July.

A total of 33 stats were monitored, which was down from 66 stats in the week prior.

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Of the 33 stats, 15 came in ahead forecasts, with 18 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. There were no stats that were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 14 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 19 stats, all 19 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, market concerns over the resilience of the global economic recovery delivered Dollar support. Economic data from the U.S was mixed, however, limiting the upside. In the week ending 23rd July, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.24% to 92.912. In the previous week, the Dollar had risen by 0.60% to 92.687.


Out of the U.S

The markets had to wait until Thursday for the first set of key stats.

Jobless claim figures disappointed. In the week ending 16th July, initial jobless claims rose from 368k to 419k. Economists had forecast a decline to 340k.

At the end of the week, prelim private sector PMI numbers for July were also in focus.

The services PMI fell from 64.6 to 59.8, while the manufacturing PMI rose from 62.1 to 63.1.

As a result, the composite PMI slid from 63.7 to 59.7, with the all-important services PMI weighing heavily on the composite.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ rallied by 2.84%, with the Dow and the S&P500 ending the week up by 1.06% and by 1.96% respectively.

Out of the UK

It was quieter week. On Thursday, CBI industrial trend orders disappointed, falling from 19 to 17. Economists had forecast a more modest decline to 18.

At the end of the week, retail sales and private sector PMI numbers were the key stats of the week, however.

In June, retail sales rose by 0.5% in June, partially reversing a 1.30% fall from May. Year-on-year, sales was up 9.7%, falling short of a forecasted 10.1% increase. In May, sales had been up by 24.6%.

Private sector PMIs were also disappointing. In July, the services PMI fell from 62.4 to 57.8, with the manufacturing PMI falling from 63.9 to 60.4.

As a result, the composite PMI fell from 62.2 to 57.7.

In the week, the Pound fell by 0.14% to end the week at $1.3748. In the week prior, the Pound had fallen by 0.96% to $1.3767.

The FTSE100 ended the week up by 0.28%, following a 1.60% loss from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a quieter week.

Eurozone consumer confidence and French, German, and Eurozone private sector PMIs were in focus.

It was a mixed set of numbers, however.

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone waned in July, with the index falling from -3.3 to -4.4. Economists had forecast an increase to -2.6.

More significant, however, were the prelim PMI numbers for July.

The French manufacturing PMI fell from 59.0 to 58.1, with the services PMI falling from 57.8 to 57.0.

Economists had forecast PMIs of 57.9 and 58.7 respectively.

From Germany, the manufacturing PMI rose from 65.1 to 65.6, with the services PMI rising from 57.5 to 62.2.

Economists had forecast PMIs of 63.7 and 59.1 respectively.

The Eurozone

For the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI fell from 63.4 to 62.6, while the services PMI rose from 58.3 to a 181-month high 60.4.

Economists had forecast PMIs of 62.5 and 59.6 respectively.

According to the prelim Markit Survey,

  • The composite PMI rose to a 252-month high in July, according to prelim figures.
  • Business activity accelerated for a 4th consecutive month, supported by a continued easing of COVID-19 restrictions.
  • Demand was on the rise, with new order growth for the private sector at its fastest since May 2000.
  • Firms hired staff for a 6th consecutive month, with the pace of hiring the 2nd steepest since Jan-2018.
  • Average selling prices for goods and services rose at a near-term record pace, reflecting supply constraints.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB left rates unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. ECB President Lagarde continued to deliver assurances to the markets, ultimately leading to a pullback in the EUR and supporting the European boerses on the day.

For the week, the EUR fell by 0.30% to $1.1771. In the week prior, the EUR had fallen by 0.59% to $1.1806.

The CAC40 rose by 1.68%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the week up by 0.83% and by 1.49% respectively.

For the Loonie

It was a particularly quiet week on the economic data front.

Retail sales figures were in focus on Friday.

In June, retail sales fell by 2.1%, following a 5.7% slide in May. Economists had forecast a 3.2% decline.

A sharp rebound in crude oil prices provided the Loonie with much-needed support, however.

Early in the week, the Loonie had visited $1.27 levels against the Greenback before finding support.

In the week ending 23rd July, the Loonie rose by 0.39% to C$1.2564. In the week prior, the Loonie had fallen by 1.33% to C$1.2613.


It was a bearish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 23rd July, the Aussie Dollar fell by 0.47% to $0.7366, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.36% to $0.6974.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a quieter week, with retail sales and RBA meeting minutes in focus.

Retail sales disappointed, falling by 1.8% in June. Economists had forecast a 0.6% decline following May’s 0.4% rise. The downside stemmed from a reintroduction of COVID-19 containment measures, as new cases spiked once more.

The RBA meeting minutes had a relatively muted impact on the Aussie Dollar early in the week.

COVID-19 and concerns over the sustainability of the economic recovery pegged the Aussie back.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was a particularly quiet week, with no major stats to provide the Kiwi Dollar with direction.

For the Japanese Yen

It was another relatively busy week.

Early in the week, inflation figures were in focus ahead of trade data on Wednesday.

Inflationary pressures returned in June, with Japan’s annual rate of inflation rising from -0.1% to 0.2%. The core annual rate of inflation ticked up from 0.1% to 0.2%.

In spite of the modest pickup, there was limited impact on the Yen. The numbers are unlikely to shift the BoJ’s stance on monetary policy.

On Wednesday, trade data was upbeat, with Japan’s trade balance rising from a ¥189.4bn deficit to a ¥383.2bn surplus. Year-on-year, exports were up 48.6% in June. In May, exports had been up by 49.6%.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.44% to ¥110.55 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had risen by 0.06% to ¥110.070.

Out of China

It was a quiet week on the economic data front, with no major stats from China for the markets to consider.

On the monetary policy front, the PBoC left loan prime rates unchanged, which was in line with expectations.

In the week ending 23rd July, the Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.03% to CNY6.4813. In the week prior, the Yuan had ended the week flat at CNY6.4792.

The CSI300 and the Hang Seng ended the week down by 0.11% and by 2.44% respectively.

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