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Trade Talks and Brexit Negotiations to Remain the Key Drivers

Geopolitics will remain the main area of focus throughout the day as Brexit and U.S – China trade talks continue.
Bob Mason
U.S. Stock Markets

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with September’s Business PMI and electronic card retail sales providing direction early on.

On the geopolitical risk front,  it was risk-on as the markets responded to positive updates from the U.S – China trade talks. There were also positive updates on Brexit negotiations, adding to the positive sentiment early in the day.

For the Kiwi Dollar

The Business PMI held steady at 48.4 September, falling short of a forecast of 49.0, according to the latest PMI Survey.

Electronic card retail sales rose by 0.4%, month-on-month, in September, following a 1.2% rise in August. Economists had forecast a 0.5% increase.

According to NZ Stats,

  • A 0.8% jump in spending on groceries and liquor provided support in September.
  • Spending on durables, including electronics, hardware, furniture and appliances and in the hospitality industries also supported. Both sectors saw a 0.4% rise in spending.
  • Weighing in September was a 4% fall in spending on clothes and shoes.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63181 to $0.63194 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.05% to $0.6323.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, The Japanese Yen was up by 0.01% to ¥107.97 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.16% to $0.6772.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. with German, French and Spanish finalized September inflation figures due out.

Barring a deviation from prelim figures, the stats will unlikely have a material impact on the EUR.

On the geopolitical front, it’s France’s imposed deadline for Britain to deliver a viable alternative to the Irish backstop. We can expect movement across the majors as news filters through. There is also the U.S – China trade war to factor in.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09% to $1.1015.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The market focus on the day will be on Brexit as Boris Johnson’s time runs out on delivering proposals to the EU. We expect the Pound to be particularly sensitive to any updates over the course of the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2440.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include U.S import and export price figures along with prelim consumer sentiment and expectation figures for October.

On the data front, we expect the Michigan consumer sentiment figures to have the greatest influence late in the day.

On the geopolitical front, it’s Friday, which has proven to be one of Trump’s favored day for tweeting. Following positive updates on Thursday, there could be further pick up in risk appetite should talks progress favorably.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 98.686 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a  relatively busy day on the economic calendar. Economic data includes September employment change figures and the September unemployment rate.

With economic data having been on the lighter side in the week, expect the Loonie to respond to the numbers.

Ahead of the stats, market sentiment towards the economic outlook and impact on crude oil prices will also provide direction.

The Loonie was down by 0.02% at C$1.3294, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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