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Bob Mason
Donald_Trump

Trump’s COVID-19

The news hit the wires in the early hours of Friday morning that Potus and Flotus tested positive for COVID-19.

Conspiracy theorists will undoubtedly be going crazy over the implications of the latest news. More relevant, however, is the timing of both U.S President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump’s infections.

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Following Wednesday’s first of 3 live televised debates, Trump failed to eat into Biden’s lead.

Biden’s attacks on Trump over the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic were perhaps a wake-up call for the Republicans.

How can Trump and the administration garner the sympathy vote and change the narrative?

Simply blaming China has failed and failed royally. China’s economic bounce back and control of the pandemic continues to make the U.S administration appear inadequate at best.

So, with the U.S Presidential Election on 3rd November and 2 live televised debates left to go, how will the nation respond?

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The Market Reaction

As we saw on Wednesday, the markets are looking for a Trump victory. Biden’s intentions to repeal Trump’s tax Bills and uncertainty over the impact of other policies leave the markets edgy.

Trump falling victim to COVID-19 is another negative for the markets.

In response, the Asian and European equity markets saw red, with the U.S Futures also in the red.

At the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 400 points. The U.S Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.14% to 93.844, with risk aversion also fueling demand for the Japanese Yen.

The Japanese Yen was up by 0.36% to ¥105.15…

With the markets bulking at the latest news, the bigger question is whether the U.S Presidential Election can be postponed.

Trump had previously looked to postpone the election due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ironically, it could actually be COVID-19 that delays next month’s Presidential Election, or so Potus believes.

While the uncertainty will now grip the markets as a debate rages on, sympathy votes may start rolling in…

In reality, however, Trump testing positive reflects just how inept he is and has been over COVID-19.

If the U.S President can get it, anyone can get it and that should be alarming…

Conspiracy?

Simply considering the fact that Trump had previously attempted to delay the election over COVID-19 is a red flag.

Announcing that he has tested positive is another alarm bell.

For a U.S President constantly accusing the news media of delivering fake news, this could be the biggest spoof of them all.

Sadly for Trump, he does not have the power to delay or postpone the U.S Presidential Election, however.

That is with the exception of election delays due to acts of terrorism.

COVID-19 may not be viewed as an act of terrorism by many. Trump, however, may see things differently.

Since the beginning, Trump has accused China of delivering the pandemic to the U.S. Could this be considered an act of terrorism by Congress?

What a coup that would be for a President on the ropes with a month to go. Again, sadly for Trump, the chances of Congress even coming close to such a view is slim to none…

In order to shift the U.S Presidential Election date, both houses of Congress must pass a change to Federal Law.

With the Democrats almost certainly licking their lips at the prospect of facing off with Pence, that’s not going to happen.

A U.S Presidential Election has never been postponed, not even after 9/11…

What’s next?

For the Democrats, it has to be business as usual, with Biden fit and healthy and able to continue with his campaigning.

An absent opponent should give Biden a chance to widen his lead. Voters are unlikely to be too impressed with Pence as U.S President. Loyalty lies with Trump more so than the Republican Party.

The first real test will therefore be what happens at the next presidential debate on 15th October.

Will Trump participate via video call or will Pence step in?

Either way, Trump will need to gauge quickly how voters have reacted. If the gap widens, Trump may have to miraculously recovery from COVID-19, despite his age, and return to the campaign trail.

If that doesn’t happen the U.S equity markets could be heading for the correction that many have been awaiting. Expect the Dollar Spot Index to start taking a run at 100 and for the Yen to start approaching ¥100…

A few governments and economies will not be too alarmed at the latest news.

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