UK Politics and Stats Put the GBP, EUR and USD in the Spotlight

Economic data will influence the GBP, EUR, and Dollar, while the Pound will also be in the hands of Brexit chatter and the Supreme Court ruling…
Bob Mason

Earlier in the Day:

It was a busier day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

Key stats included September prelim private sector PMI numbers out of Japan.

For the Japanese Yen

The manufacturing PMI slipped from 49.3 to 48.9 in September, which was worse than a forecast of 49.5. It was also negative for the services sector, with the PMI slipping from 53.3 to 52.8 in September. According to the September PMI survey,

  • New orders picked up across the services sector, with the manufacturing sector reporting a weaker decline.
  • The manufacturing sector also reported a weaker decline in new export orders, with service sector firms reporting stronger growth.
  • There was a decline in service sector employment, however, whilst the manufacturing sector reported weaker growth.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.613 to ¥107.653 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% to ¥107.66 against the U.S Dollar.


The Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.05% to $0.6291, while the Aussie dollar up by 0.01% to $0.6774. With the RBNZ monetary policy decision tomorrow, the Kiwi could struggle.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data includes Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index figures.

The EUR reacted to the dire private sector PMI numbers on Monday and there could be more downside should the figures disappoint.

On the geopolitical front, there’s Brexit and U.S – China trade war chatter to also consider throughout the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.01% to $1.0992.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. Economic data is limited to September’s CBI Industrial Trends Orders.

While the UK economy managed to avoid a contraction and the BoE stands pat until there is Brexit clarity, the numbers will influence.

Any moves would likely be short-lived, however, with Brexit remaining the key driver.

Johnson reportedly has 6-days remaining to submit plausible alternatives to the Irish backstop, which will be a test for the Pound as the week progresses.

There is also the Supreme Court ruling on whether it was lawful to suspend Parliament. The ruling is expected later today. Another loss for Johnson should provide support to the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.2435.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include July house price figures and September’s CB Consumer Confidence figures. The CB Consumer Confidence figure will have the greatest influence. Forecasts are Dollar neutral.

Outside of the numbers, any further chatter on trade will influence as will any FOMC member chatter on monetary policy.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.06% to 98.654 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

While we can expect plenty of influence from the numbers, negative sentiment towards trade weighed in the early part of the day. The markets will also be looking for updates on Saudis progress in getting production back online following the attacks on its oil field.

The Loonie was up by 0.03% at C$1.3259, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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