10-Yr U.S. Treasury Notes (TY) Futures Technical Analysis – August 11, 2015 Forecast

September 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes reversed course during the pre-market session after closing near the low on Monday. The strong recovery has put the market in a position to challenge last week’s swing top at 127’29.5. A trade through this price will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The first upside target today is an uptrending angle at 127’30. Crossing to the bullish side of this angle will put the market in a bullish position with the next likely targets 129’19 and 129’31. These prices are not likely to be tested, however, unless the Fed takes a 2016 rate hike off the table.

Based on the current price at 127’20.5, the first resistance is a major Fibonacci level at 127’20.5. This is followed by a downtrending angle at 127’23.5.

On the downside, the first target is a downtrending angle at 127’17.5. The daily chart opens up to the downside under this level with the next target another downtrending angle at 127’05.5 and a major 50% level at 127’01.

The 50% level at 127’01 is also a trigger point for a steep sell-off with the next target a support cluster at 126’20.

The direction of the market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 127’20.5.