ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – SOL Bucked a Bearish Week

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish week, with the total crypto market cap falling by $9.52 billion to $885.9 billion.
• The Federal Reserve, the Vasil hard fork, and the SEC v Ripple case were market areas of focus.
• Technical indicators are bearish, with uncertainty about the economic outlook likely to remain a headwind.

The crypto market cap fell by $9.52 billion to end the week at $885.9 billion. It was a second consecutive weekly loss, with the market cap at sub-$900 billion for the second week since July.

A post-Fed $42.1 billion rise on Thursday limited the downside for the week. However, a bearish weekend left the market in the red though the loss was modest relative to the previous week’s $130.3 billion sell-off.

Market sentiment towards the global economic outlook and reaction to the Fed led to a Wednesday low of $847.0 billion. However, the market bounced back on Thursday, despite a hawkish 75-basis point rate hike and gloomy economic growth projections.

The Fed holding back from delivering a percentage point rate hike and easing bets of a percentage point rate hike in November likely supported a bullish Thursday session.

Adding further support was a sharp pickup in investor optimism towards the SEC v Ripple case.

A favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple case would be a bullish signal for XRP and the broader crypto market. The crypto sector has aired its preference for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to regulate the digital asset space. Failure by the SEC to win the case could tilt the scales in favor of the CFTC.

The shift in sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case may also have contributed to the crypto market decoupling from the NASDAQ 100 on Thursday and Friday.

Cardano (ADA)

In the week ending September 25, ADA slipped by 0.45% to $0.446. A mixed week saw ADA fall to a Wednesday low of $0.429 before striking a Friday high of $0.482.

While avoiding the August low of $0.424, ADA also fell short of $0.500 despite the successful Cardano mainnet hard fork. A bearish weekend saw ADA give up post-hard fork gains.

Market reaction to the Vasil hard fork was bullish. Following the hard fork, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson provided positive news to deliver further ADA price support.

On Friday, Charles Hoskinson took to Twitter, saying,

“I’ve seen hundreds of tweets like this one. Lots of projects are excited to deploy now.”

The Cardano founder was referring to a tweet from NewM, which said,

“We’ve been waiting for the #Vasil to deploy our smart contracts. This upgrade makes them more efficient and cost-effective on #Cardano. The future of #music is happening now! More on this soon.”

Updates from Hoskinson and Input Output HK (IOHK) will now be instrumental to an ADA run at $1.00.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.458. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were ADA price negative.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA would ease selling pressure and give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.464). However, following Sunday’s slide through the 50-day EMA, sub-$0.400 remains in view.

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT fell by 3.88% in the week. A bearish start to the week saw DOT fall to a Wednesday low of $5.97 before striking a Friday high of $6.63. However, a bearish weekend saw DOT end the week at $6.20.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT has to avoid sub-$6.00 to avoid the 2022 low of $5.97. While network updates will continue to influence, direction from the broader market will remain the key driver.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.48. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA sliding back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.48) and the 100-day EMA ($6.73) to support a bearish trend reversal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $5.97.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bearish week, falling by 3.00% to end the week at $1,295. After a range-bound start to the week, ETH struck a Wednesday high of $1,412 before sliding to a post-Fed September low of $1,220. However, finding support from the broader market, ETH revisited $1,350 before easing back into the red.

Market reaction to the Ethereum Merge continued to peg ETH back from a return to $2,000. Increased SEC scrutiny of Proof-of-Stake (PoS) protocols was also ETH negative.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,220 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,356. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA could signal a shift in sentiment and support a return to $1,500. However, ETH would need to break down resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,428).

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,220 in play.

Solana (SOL)

SOL bucked the market trend, rising by 3.89% in the week. Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL fell to a Wednesday low of $29.9975. However, steering clear of the August low of $29.915, SOL struck a Saturday high of $34.7925 before easing back to end the week at $32.3250.

News of Helium (HNT) migrating to the Solana blockchain was SOL positive. Network updates were also bullish, with transactions on the Solana blockchain surpassing 100 billion.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $32.8537.

The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both were price negatives.

An SOL breakout from the 50-day EMA ($32.8537) would support a move through the 100-day EMA ($33.0624) to target the 200-day EMA ($33.941). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($32.8537) would leave sub-$30 and the August low ($29.9150) in play.