Oil News: Oil Futures Edge Lower Despite Iran Risk Premium Intact

Crude Oil Edges Lower as U.S.-Iran Talks Continue

Crude oil prices are edging lower on Thursday after giving back earlier gains. The price action suggests traders are still assessing simmering tensions between the United States and Iran. Traders fear that any military action on Tehran by Washington could trigger a supply disruption that could lead to sharply higher prices. Prices are being underpinned despite a huge build in U.S. crude oil inventories. A weaker dollar is also contributing to the recent strength in the market.

The biggest fear for traders is the possible disruption to the transportation of about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. This represents about 20% of global consumption.

Ongoing Talks May Be Preventing U.S. Strike

What is likely stalling a U.S. attack on Iran are the ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran. The last public comment on the progress of the talks was last Friday when an Iranian official called the talks “good”. I guess the good thing is the negotiations are ongoing, and the longer they take place, the less likely the U.S. attacks Iran.

President Trump has not said anything of major importance about the talks, other than they would continue, but he did add to the tensions recently when he said he talked with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday. However, the outcome of the chat was that the two military powerhouses have yet to reach a definitive agreement on how to proceed with Iran. This comment leads me to believe that if there is an attack, it will be a joint military operation between the two military powerhouses.

While Trump has been relatively quiet, he may have lit a small fire under Iran by stating on Tuesday that he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal with Iran is not reached soon.

Supply Concerns Mount as Demand Forecast Drops

Supply seems to be the theme at this time. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth, which is likely to add to the current oversupply situation and lower prices when the war premium is lifted.

Traders also noted a higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil inventory build that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday. Gains were likely capped when the weekly EIA data showed an 8.5 million barrel build to 428.8 million barrels last week. This was far higher than the 793,000 increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

Technical Outlook: Uptrend Line at $64.65 is Key

Technically, the key indicator to watch is the uptrend line at $64.65 today. Holding above it will set up a possible surge to $66.49. A failure to hold it could trigger a break back to $62.20 to $61.12.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.