Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Can Gold Clear $5,140 Toward $5,300?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) failed to gain traction and edged lower on the day. It is currently trading at 5,076, hitting the intra-day low of 5,045 level. However, the reason behind its sluggish performance could be the strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March and strengthened the US dollar.

Another reason that has been weighing on Gold price was traders cautious stance ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation data on Friday, Although the losses in the gold price could be limited as ongoing concerns about threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence continue to support safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

Dollar Rises After Jobs Data, Gold Faces Mild Pressure

On the data front, the US added 130,000 jobs in January, mostly in the private sector, while government jobs fell. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.3%, and wages stayed steady at 3.7%. After the report, the US dollar strengthened, which put some pressure on Gold. Traders now see a high chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March, as the strong jobs numbers lowered hopes for an early rate cut.

Fed officials are staying cautious. Beth Hammack, from the Cleveland Fed, said the job market looks steady and inflation needs to return to 2%. Jeffrey Schmid, from the Kansas City Fed, warned that lowering rates too soon could keep inflation high. Their comments suggest the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged for now.

Gold Supported Amid Dollar Pressure and Fed Uncertainty

On the other hand, the ongoing concerns about the US central bank’s independence cap some gains in the US dollar, which which has helped Gold to limit its losses. Traders are remain cautious and waiting for Friday’s US consumer inflation report, which could give clues about the Fed’s next move.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds $5,000 as Ascending Trendline Meets 0.618 Fibonacci 

On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading sideways near $5,074 level. Previously, it bounced off support level of around $4,996. Overall, the price of XAU/USD pair is still above the upward trendline from early February’s low near $4,540. It’s keeping the precious metal’s short-term outlook positive. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $5,138 is the first resistance, and $5,303 is the next level to watch if price moves higher.

Recent candlesticks have smaller bodies and mixed wicks, which suggests the market is consolidating after its sharp rebound.

The 50-period moving average is flattening out near $5,000, and the 200-period moving average is still below $4,800, which keeps the overall trend tilted upward. If gold breaks above $5,138, it could move toward $5,303. But if it falls below $4,996, there is a risk of a drop toward $4,855.

Trade idea: Go long if gold moves above $5,140, aiming for $5,300, and set a stop below $4,995.

Silver Price Forecast:  XAG/USD Holds Near $84 as Trendline Approaches 200-MA

 

On the 4-hour chart, Silver is trading at around $83.75 level. Most of the price action is between a upward trendline and the 200-period moving average which is holding at $84 level. Following the recent bounce off from the $70.37 low, Silver’s price is making higher lows.

Typically this signals a slow recovery in prices. However, the candlesticks which holding near $84 are having small bodies and upper wicks, signaling indecision among traders.

The 50-period moving average is heading downward, the price of silver is still below MA line, which is keeping short-term pressure. Moreover, the horizontal support is at $79.81. In case, the price moves above $84.25 level, it could head toward $88.00 and then $92.14. If it falls below the rising trendline, it might pull back toward $79.80. RSI is hovering near midline, reflecting balanced momentum.

Trade idea: Consider long above $84.30 targeting $88.00 with stop below $81.80.