ADA Price Prediction: Exchange Upgrades to Dictate Return to $0.50

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish start to September, with Cardano (ADA) up 2.47% to lead the crypto top ten by market cap.
• News of Robinhood (HOOD) listing ADA and sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork muted the influence of US economic indicators.
• Following the August loss, technical indicators remain bearish. ADA sits at the 50-day EMA, leaving sub-$0.40 in play.

On Thursday, ADA rose by 2.47%. Reversing a 1.55% loss from Wednesday, ADA ended the day at $0.457.

After a choppy morning session, ADA slid to a late afternoon low of $0.441. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.438, ADA struck a high of $0.462 before responding to the positive US economic indicators. However, a fall back to $0.442 was short-lived, with ADA bouncing back to end the day at $0.457.

News of Robinhood (HOOD) listing ADA delivered a price boost, with investor sentiment towards the upcoming Vasil hard fork also providing support.

Cardano Updates Continue to Support a September Hard Fork Date

Vasil hard fork updates continued to support Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson’s September hard fork date prediction. Following 75% of SPO nodes upgrading to v1.35.3, the market focus has turned to two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 1, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Five exchanges are hard fork ready, up by one from the previous day: Bitrue, ChainEx, LCX, MEXC, and NDAX.io have upgraded. Bitrue and MEXC form the top 12 exchanges by liquidity.
• 28 exchanges are in progress, up from 26 as of August 31.
• 107 exchanges have yet to start, down from 109 as of August 31. Significantly, four exchanges from the top 12 have yet to begin, including AAX, ChangellyPRO, Coinbase, and ZB.com

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 78% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. Momentum slowed in recent days, with the 75% threshold already achieved. However, Input Output HK called for SPO nodes to continue to upgrade.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was flat at $0.457.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.453 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.466. ADA would need support from the broader market to break out from the Thursday high of $0.462.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.474 and resistance at $0.480. News of Coinbase commencing the Vasil hard fork would support a breakout. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.495.

Updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators will continue to deliver ADA price action. However, US nonfarm payrolls will also influence later today.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.445 back into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of sub-$0.44 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.432.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.411. Positive US stats and hawkish Fed chatter would test investor resilience.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.454. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA would bring R1 ($0.466) and the 100-day EMA ($0.467) into play. However, a fallback through the 50-day EMA would bring support levels and sub-$0.40 into view.