ADA Price Prediction: Return to $0.55 Hinged on IOHK Update

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish end to a bullish week, with cardano (ADA) falling by 0.39% to end the week at $0.510.
• Market sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork took a back seat, with no updates available since Friday.
• However, technical indicators are bullish, with ADA sitting above the 50-day EMA, bringing $0.60 into play.

On Sunday, ADA fell by 0.39%. Partially reversing a 1.79% gain from Saturday, ADA ended the week up 1.19% to $0.510.

After a choppy start to the day, ADA rose to a late morning high of $0.520 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.526, ADA fell to a late low of $0.500.

However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.497, ADA wrapped up the day at $0.510.

While market sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork remained ADA positive, ADA struggled for direction as investors await the next round of updates from Input Output HK.

Investors Await Input Output HK Hard Fork Updates with 10-Days Remaining

On Sunday, Input Output HK remained radio silent on social media. Input Output HK announced that it would pause all social media comments over the next few days in respect of Her Majesty the Queen.

Today, Input Output HK released the weekly Development report. Key highlights included,

• Vasil mainnet upgrade to be triggered on September 22.
• Daedalus v 5.0.0 out.
• Ongoing work on Plutus and Marlowe functionality.
• Hydra tools to improve Hydra node usage released.
• Fund9 voting started.

Cardano statistics to date included,

• 94 projects launched on Cardano.
• 6 million native tokens.
• 3,196 Plutus scripts.
• 1,093 are projects building on Cardano.
• 61,314 token policies.
• 49.6 million total number of transactions.

While the updates and the stats were positive, the market focus remains on progress towards the Vasil hard fork.

As of September 9, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Fifteen exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 14 as of September 8.
• Hard fork ready exchanges include AAX, AscendEX (Bitmax), Binance, Bitkub, Bitmart, Bitrue, BKEX, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, Litebit.eu, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit.
• Twenty-seven exchanges are in progress, down by one from the previous day, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Six exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including Coinbase, HitBTC, Upbit, and XT.com.
• However, two exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process: ChangellyPro and ZB.com.

While the number of exchanges being hard fork ready and the number in progress have risen, Coinbase has yet to complete the upgrade process.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 9, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The next update will be available at 1600 UTC.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.39% to $0.512. A choppy start to the day saw ADA slide to an early low of $0.499 before rising to a high of $0.517.

ADA tested the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.500 early on.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.510 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.520. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates later in the day will provide direction. News of Coinbase and Kraken completing the upgrade process would support an ADA breakout.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.530. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.550.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.500 back into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.495 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.490. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.470.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.487. Following Saturday’s bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($0.520) to bring R2 ($0.530) into play. However, a fall through the S1 ($0.500) would give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.493) and S2 ($0.490).