Solana Price Forecast: SOL Signals a 40% Breakout Move Ahead

Solana’s SOL token is forming a cup-and-handle pattern on its daily chart, raising the possibility of a rally toward $105–$106. However, weak memecoin activity and the recent BONK governance attack could slow the breakout.

SOL Cup-and-Handle Breakout Targets $105

SOL was trading near $76.75 on July 20 after spending more than a week consolidating below the $80–$81 resistance zone. The consolidation appears to be forming the “handle” portion of a cup-and-handle pattern.

The setup forms when price undergoes a rounded recovery, creating the cup, before entering a smaller downward-sloping consolidation called the handle. Traders typically consider the pattern confirmed once the price closes above the neckline resistance.

Solana’s cup began forming after its late-May decline from around $82. SOL then fell toward $59 in June before recovering to approximately $81 in early July.

The $80–$81 neckline overlaps with SOL’s 100-day exponential moving average (100-day EMA, purple) near $80.45. A decisive daily close above this confluence, preferably alongside higher trading volume, would confirm the bullish breakout.

Adding the cup’s roughly $24 depth to the breakout point produces a technical target near $105–$106, about 40% above current prices.

SOL may first encounter resistance at its 200-day EMA (blue) near $93.84. Meanwhile, its 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs are converging around $76.42 and $76.57, respectively, creating immediate support.

The daily relative strength index is near 52, reflecting neutral momentum and leaving room for another advance.

A close below the handle support near $74 would weaken the setup. A deeper drop below $69–$70 could invalidate the immediate breakout outlook and expose SOL to a retest of $65.

BONK Hack and Low Pump Activity Threaten Momentum

Despite the bullish setup, Solana’s memecoin ecosystem remains under pressure.

An attacker recently accumulated enough BONK voting power to pass a malicious governance proposal that transferred an estimated $20 million in BONK tokens from the BonkDAO treasury.

The incident did not compromise the Solana blockchain, but it may have damaged confidence in one of its most visible memecoin communities.

Pump-related activity has also cooled sharply.

Pump.fun’s bonding-curve revenue is now below $1 million per day, compared with peaks near $7 million.

PumpSwap revenue has fallen toward roughly $200,000–$300,000 from a peak near $880,000, while Terminal revenue has dropped toward $50,000 from highs near $250,000.

The slowdown suggests speculative demand is no longer supporting Solana as strongly as during previous memecoin booms.