ADA Price Prediction: Vasil Hard Fork Updates to Support a Return to $0.50

Key Insights:

• Cardano (ADA) slid by 7.39% on Tuesday to extend the losing streak to three sessions.
• Updates on the Vasil hard fork took a back seat as investors responded to the US CPI report for August.
• However, technical indicators are bullish, with ADA sitting above the 50-day EMA, bringing $0.60 into play.

On Tuesday, ADA slid by 7.39%. Following a 1.76% loss on Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.464. The Tuesday sell-off marked a third consecutive day in the red.

After a mixed start to the day, ADA rose to a mid-day high of $0.509 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.515, ADA tumbled to a low of $0.461.

The extended sell-off saw ADA fall through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.491 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.482 to end the day at $0.464.

Updates on the Vasil hard fork took a back seat as investors responded to yet another shift in sentiment towards Fed monetary policy. The US CPI report for August sent riskier assets into the deep red. Later today, US wholesale inflation numbers will also draw interest as the Vasil hard fork date nears.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Updates Test Buyer Demand

With US inflation and Fed monetary policy a hot topic once more, progress towards the Vasil hard fork is also of influence.

As of September 13, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Eighteen exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 16 as of September 12.
• Twenty-five exchanges are in progress, down by three from September 12, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-six exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Six exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, HitBTC, and XT.com.
• However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

Investors will be looking for Coinbase and Kraken to complete the upgrade process to deliver ADA price support.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 13, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The next update will be available at 1600 UTC.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.86% to $0.468. A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.462 before rising to a high of $0.469.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.478 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.495 and the Tuesday high of $0.509. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates later in the day will provide direction. News of Coinbase and Kraken completing the upgrade process would support an ADA breakout.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.526. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.574. However, US economic indicators will need to be crypto-positive to support a bullish session.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.447 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.430. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.382.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, currently at $0.486. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day and the 200-day EMAs, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A bearish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would bring S1 ($0.447) into play. However, an ADA move through the EMAs would give the bulls a run at R1 ($0.495) and the Tuesday high of $0.509.