ASX 200 Forecast: Bears Press 8,730 as CPI Risk Builds

The Australian market’s enduring a punishing five-session losing streak. Creeping dread is the name of the game as the ASX 200 drifts lower. We’re witnessing a lead weight of fundamental economic pressures that’s suppressing every ounce of technical resilience. It’s a frustrating paradox. Good news for the economy, like the recent PMI expansion in Manufacturing and Services, is acting as bad news for portfolios. It gives the RBA the all-clear to stay hawkish.

Supertrend Resistance Holds

The weekly ASX 200 chart shows a market that tried to recover from the 8,255 lows, but the rebound’s lost its shape. Price remains below the 9,222.9 peak. We’re currently struggling under the short Supertrend zone around 8,754. The weekly structure is no longer cleanly bullish. We’re trapped. A close below 8,700 would confirm that sellers aren’t just defending the highs, they’re pressing into the heart of the range.

ASX 200 Weekly Chart Shows Bearish Pressure Below Supertrend Resistance

ASX 200 weekly technical chart showing price rejection below resistance and bearish trend pressure

Source: TradingView

21-Day EMA Rejects the Bounce

The daily setup is more clearly bearish. The recent rebound stalled at around 9,065, well below the prior high of 9,222.9, creating a lower high. Price has since rolled back below the 21-EMA, while RSI has slipped toward 45, below the neutral 50 line. That’s not oversold. It’s weak. I expect downside continuation unless buyers can quickly reclaim the 8,820–8,900 resistance band. Below current levels, 8,679, 8,541, and 8,255 are the key downside markers.

ASX 200 Weakens Below the 21-EMA

ASX 200 daily chart showing price below the 21-EMA with RSI weakening under 50

Source: TradingView

Renko Chart: 15-Point Bricks Turn Lower

The Renko with 15-bricks confirms the short-term bearish shift. The ASX 200 is printing lower highs and lower lows after failing around 8,849.1 and 8,827.7. Price is now sitting near 8,730, below the Renko Supertrend resistance near 8,759.7 and the broader downtrend marker near 8,806.2. The 500-SMA around 8,678.9 is now the key tactical support. If that breaks, the door opens for a deeper retest toward 8,640–8,600. The Z-score SMA near -0.9 suggests bearish pressure is present but not yet stretched, so sellers still have room to push.

ASX 200 Renko Confirms Short-Term Bearish Momentum

ASX 200 Renko with 15-bricks showing lower highs and bearish Supertrend pressure

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Outlook

Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Key Support Levels: 8,255

Key Resistance Levels: 8,755,9230

Medium-term Path: ASX 200 is skewed lower while price remains below 8,820–8,900. I’d treat rebounds into that zone as corrective unless the index can reclaim the 21-day EMA and hold above it. A break below 8,679 would strengthen the bearish case and shift focus toward 8,541, then 8,255. CPI risk on Wednesday is the next big trigger. Hot inflation would likely reinforce RBA tightening concerns and keep pressure on rate-sensitive sectors, especially banks and consumer-linked names.