ASX 200 Forecast: Hormuz Blockade and Mining Demand Drive Pivot

The Middle East just got a whole lot more complicated. Over the weekend, ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed, and President Trump didn’t waste any time. He ordered a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports starting today. Crude oil is already jumping back over $100. This is the definition of a supply-side shock. While the global economy braces for another round of energy-driven inflation, the local market is finding an odd pocket of strength. Aussie futures are up (as of time of writing), which tells me traders are focusing on the “commodity hedge” aspect of the ASX 200 rather than just the risk-off headlines. Copper demand is holding up, and with gold acting as a safe haven, our big miners are looking like the only game in town.

Weekly Squeeze Nears a Decision Point

The weekly timeframe shows a market that’s exhausted but trying to turn the corner. We’ve spent weeks bouncing around the 8,200–9,100 range. Look at the lower wicks on the recent candles. Buyers have stepped in and flipped the shorter term Supertrend. This has shifted the overall view to neutral with a positive bias. So we’re in a consolidation box, but the momentum has started to tilt back toward the bulls. I’m watching for a clean weekly close above 9,230 to confirm this isn’t just another dead-cat bounce in a larger corrective phase.

ASX 200 weekly Supertrend squeeze

Reclaiming the 21-EMA

The daily chart is where the real battle is happening. We saw a sharp flush to 8,255 last month, but the recovery since then has been surprisingly orderly. Price is now trading above the 21-EMA. That’s a massive win for the bulls. The RSI is hovering above 60, signaling that we have room to run before hitting overbought territory. If we can hold above the 21-EMA, the path toward a 9,222.9 re-test looks wide open. Indeed, I’m biased to the upside here as long as we don’t slip back under that EMA.

ASX 200 daily 21-EMA breakout

ASX 200 daily chart: EMA breakout. Source: TradingView

Micro-Trend Analysis via Renko

For the day traders, the 11-Brick Renko reveals some interesting institutional tape. We just cleared the 500-SMA on this micro-scale, which has been a major headache for the last week. The Supertrend is green, and the Z-Score is resetting toward the mean. It’s a classic breakout-and-retest setup. There’s a bit of selling pressure near 8,816, but the overall structure remains constructive. We need to see sustained volume on this push to believe the 9,225 target is realistic this week.

ASX 200 Renko SMA 500 breakout

The Verdict

Current trend direction: Neutral.

Bias: Positive.

Key support levels: 8,255, 8,635, 8,890.

Key resistance levels: 9,230.

Medium Term Path: The ASX 200 is finally showing some teeth. Reclaiming the 21-EMA is the first step toward a broader recovery. I expect the index to grind higher toward the 9,230 resistance zone as miners benefit from the commodity tailwind. If the RBA stays on hold despite the oil shock, this rally has legs. However, a failure to hold 8,635 would invalidate the bull case and likely send us back into a choppy 8,255–8,635 consolidation.